If you were to draw a straight line across the southern borders of Schuylkill, Carbon and Monroe counties, you would find that the three counties showed negative growth since the 2010 decennial census, but the three counties south of that line — Berks, Lehigh and Northampton — showed population gains.

In fact, Lehigh County’s population has ballooned nearly 4 percent to almost 350,000, making it one of the fastest-growing counties in the state. Northampton County has shown steady growth, up 1.5 percent to nearly 300,000, and Berks has grown 0.6 percent to nearly 490,000.

The three counties north of this line, however, have all shown population declines. Schuylkill had the sharpest drop, down 3.2 percent to 143,500; Carbon also dropped significantly, down 2.5 percent to nearly 63,600, and Monroe, until recently one of the fastest-growing counties in Pennsylvania, down 2.2 percent to just about 166,100.

Pennsylvania showed a 0.6 percent population gain since 2010, but, despite this modest growth, the state is expected to lose another seat in Congress when the 2020 census figures are released and reapportionment occurs. This will take the delegation from 18 to 17.

In looking more deeply into the numbers, there are several constants in all five of the counties that make up the Times News area — there are fewer younger people (under 18) and more who are 65 and older.

Carbon and Schuylkill lead the way with the highest percentage of senior citizens — 20.3 percent in Carbon vs. 20 percent in Schuylkill. Then come Northampton, 18.2 percent, followed by Lehigh, 16.4 percent, and, finally, Monroe, 16.1 percent.

Monroe officials were surprised by the low number of elderly since the Poconos have long been touted as a second home and retirement area. As retirees have become more mobile, wealthier and less tolerant of cold weather, they have been choosing warmer weather destinations, such as Florida, Arizona and South Carolina.

Even with the lower percentage of elderly compared to nearby counties, there was a nearly 26 percent increase in the over-65 age group in Monroe during the seven-year period since the 2010 census.

Statewide, the percentage of elderly has increased from 15.4 percent to 17.4 percent, a rise of 13 percent. The percentage of Carbon’s elderly ballooned even higher, 14 percent during the seven-year period. Schuylkill’s increase was 10.5 percent; Lehigh’s was 10.9 percent; and Northampton’s, nearly 16 percent.

There were some other surprises in the numbers, too. One might expect that Lehigh County, whose county seat is Allentown, the third-largest city in Pennsylvania, would have the highest percentage of Hispanics and blacks. The census shows that this is true in the case of Hispanics, but not blacks.

Monroe has the highest percentage of blacks at 15.5 percent, followed by 9.1 percent in Lehigh, 6.5 percent in Northampton, 3.2 percent in Schuylkill and 2 percent in Carbon. Lehigh’s Hispanic population makes up 23.3 percent of the total; followed by Monroe, 15.4 percent; Northampton, 12.9 percent; Carbon, 4.4 percent; and Schuylkill, 4 percent.

Statewide, blacks are 11.8 percent of the population, and Hispanics make up 7 percent of the total.

The census figures show that a majority of the residents of four of the five counties are female. Just Schuylkill has more males than females, 51.1 to 48.9 percent. Lehigh and Northampton have the most women with 51 percent, matching the statewide percentage, followed by Northampton, 50.8; Monroe, 50.5; and Carbon, 50.4. Monroe has the highest percentage of foreign-born residents — 10.9 percent, followed by Lehigh’s 10.5 percent, Northampton’s 7 percent, Carbon’s 2.6 percent and Schuylkill’s 1.9 percent.

Carbon’s and Schuylkill’s foreign-born percentages were surprises since there is a perception that these areas attracted many European immigrants to work in the coal mines. That was true a generation or more ago, but not today, since many of the 20th century immigrants are now dead. Many of their offspring have moved to other areas to seek greener job pastures, but some have stayed all their lives in their home communities.

By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com