Penn State fans, the national media and college football enthusiasts in general circled week five in the beginning of the 2018 season as a possible College Football Playoff bracket buster Saturday.

A big reason for that is because as expected both Penn State (4-0, No. 9 AP) and Ohio State (4-0, No. 4 AP) are coming into their colossal match-up later tonight (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) unbeaten. A game between two historic Big Ten programs that has so much on the line and very well could decide the winner of the Big Ten East, as well as a possible College Football Playoff participant.

Usually, when you think about a game between the Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes you think about defense. You think about a hard-hitting punch you in the mouth type of ball game where the scores will be in the twenties, maybe the low thirties. However, it’s easy to see the high-scoring trend across the country - the spread scheme reigns supreme with offenses putting up bigger and bigger numbers each year – meaning don’t be surprised if this game reaches 80 or more total points.

There have certainly been some defensive battles between these two schools in the past, but tonight I highly doubt you will see one of those games. The proof is in the statistics and they’re staggering with Penn State leading the country in scoring per game at 55.5, and Ohio State right behind them ranked No. 2, averaging 54.5 points per game. Both teams average over 500 yards of total offense with Ohio State coming in at just under 600 yards of total offense per game. This is the type of game where points are going to be scored, and taking care of the football will be even more critical. So let’s look at the key match-ups in this one that could decide the winner.

In my opinion, the most vital key to this game for Penn State is its front seven against the Ohio State offensive line, quarterback and running backs. The Buckeyes boast one of the best offensive lines in the country and they’ve done a good job of protecting quarterback Dwayne Haskins, which has allowed him to stand in the pocket and throw for close to 300 yards per game — with 16 touchdowns and just one interception. In fact, the Buckeyes offensive line has surrendered just six sacks all season long.

I suspect early on that Brent Pry will evaluate if his front four is getting pressure and if not he will need to dial up some blitzes from the outside with Micah Parsons, Cam Brown and Koa Farmer, who are all more than capable pass rushers from the linebacker position. Getting pressure on Haskins early will be paramount, as well as stopping the run. Ohio State running backs JK Dobbins (323 rushing yards) and Mike Weber (312 rushing yard) form one of the best backfields in the country. If Penn State can hold Dobbins and Weber on early running downs and force the Buckeyes into third and long situations, Penn State should be able to limit their big play ability.

However, that’s a big if, mostly because in the Nittany Lions’ first four games the defensive tackles and linebackers have given up some yardage. I doubt that will be totally cleaned up by tonight. So at those spots, Penn State will need to make plays and not miss tackles and when it has the chance to wrap up Haskins, Dobbins, or Weber in the backfield.

It’s as simple as this, if Penn State allows Haskins time to throw the football it will have a hard time winning this football game. With receivers like KJ Hill and Parris Campbell, who are absolute game-breakers, Haskins will have his way if he isn’t pressured. On the defensive end, this game will be in the hands of guys like Shareef Miller, Yetur Gross-Matos, Shaka Toney, and Kevin Givens — all guys that can get after the quarterback.

“I think the two wideouts are guys that in terms of them getting their hands on the ball in space can change the game at any moment. I don’t think there’s any doubt about it. That’ll be a significant challenge for us,” said Penn State head coach James Franklin about Ohio State’s receivers. “Being able to get pressure on the quarterback is not something that people have necessarily consistently been able to do against them for a couple of reasons.

“Number one, I think the quarterback does a good job of getting the ball out of his hands quickly, and I think they’ve done a good job with their scheme and the talent that they have at wideout that typically his first or second progression is open because of the scheme and because of the talent, that he’s not holding on to the ball very long as well. I think it’s a combination of those two things.”

The other key is No. 9 Trace McSorley. I’ll give you my game prediction in just a bit, but the reason I think Penn State has a good chance to win this game is because of this young man. The competitiveness he shows week-to-week is right up there with the best of them — and on a grand stage at home in Beaver Stadium, I expect him to have a big night.

McSorley has yet to have a huge breakout game in 2018, although he’s been effective with his legs (260 yards rushing, six TDs) and throwing the ball downfield (13.3 yards per completion). With an improved offensive line and a host of weapons on the outside in KJ Hamler, Juwan Johnson, DeAndre Thompkins and Brandon Polk – plus the fact that Nick Bosa will be out for this game – look for McSorley to have a 300-yard plus performance through the air.

Penn State is also entering its game with the Buckeyes with an added weapon in its arsenal in a steady and proven running game. Over the past few years, Saquon Barkley could make a game-breaking play at a moment’s notice, but the running game lacked consistency, mostly because of inconsistent offensive line play. This season, the Nittany Lions rushing attack is averaging 275 yards per game. Miles Sanders has filled in nicely for Barkley behind an offensive line that looks to be one of the best in the Big Ten, as he’s rushed for 495 yards and five scores. A consistent running game paired with McSorley’s skill set could really keep the Ohio State defense off-balance, especially without its best player in Bosa.

Las Vegas has Ohio State as a three-point favorite.

The keys to a Penn State win will be limiting chunk yardage in the run game, getting pressure on Haskins, running the ball with consistency on the offensive end, and making plays downfield in the passing game. I think the Nittany Lions will struggle to get consistent pressure on Haskins — like most teams have — but I think they will hold up against the run, forcing Haskins to throw the ball a little too often on the night and Penn State will get a few turnovers. Offensively, I think the whiteout atmosphere coupled with McSorley’s winner take all attitude will fuel a successful offensive game plan.

My pick is Penn State 44, Ohio State 38.