Well, here we are again.

Penn State - yet again - has the opportunity to prove to its fans, the media, its students and the entire college football community that it can indeed win the “big game.”

Or it will once again prove that it cannot, which happens to be the opinion of most, who pay close attention to the sport of college football.

The No. 10 ranked Nittany Lions (8-1) will host No. 3 ranked Michigan (9-0) at noon today (FOX) inside of Beaver Stadium for a chance to stay in both the Big Ten and College Football Playoff championship hunt.

Let’s dig right into this one. The No. 1 most important key, I believe, for Penn State in this game will be how well it defends Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy and their passing attack. The Nittany Lions cannot let McCarthy beat them, which will not be easy because he is having a terrific season for the Wolverines. McCarthy has thrown for 2,134 yards with 18 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Now, that is not to say that Penn State can let Michigan running back Blake Corum run wild. Corum leads the country in rushing touchdowns with 16, but the UM offense hasn’t been as dependent on its run game as it was last season, where it would play bully ball, and just line up and out-physical teams.

And if the Wolverines did that to PSU on Saturday, I wouldn’t be totally shocked, just because I think until you prove you can stop someone’s rushing attack, I don’t think you can make assumptions that Penn State is going to be able to handle Corum and his counterpart Donovan Edwards. Remember, Michigan rushed for 418 yards and four touchdowns last season.

The Nittany Lions defense is good. There is no denying that, and they have been good against the run, allowing just 60.3 yards per game, which is the best in the country, and they have been good against the pass, giving up just 173.9 passing yards per game - which ranks 12th in the country. The Penn State defense needs to bring pressure and create havoc consistently in this game in order to get McCarthy off schedule and uncomfortable.

The Nittany Lions lead the country in sacks per game with 4.2 sacks per contest. However, in their other huge game this season against Ohio State, PSU needed to get pressure on Buckeyes’ quarterback Kyle McCord, and they were not consistently able to do so, and McCord finished the day throwing for 286 yards and one touchdown. Now, McCarthy doesn’t have a Marvin Harrison Jr. to throw to, like McCord does, but the Wolverines wide receiver group is plenty capable. Simply put, if Penn State is not able to get pressure on McCarthy, then odds are it’s going to come away with a loss.

The No. 2 key for the Nittany Lions in this game is going to be the quarterback play of Drew Allar. Allar has looked very solid since his clutch 57-yard touchdown pass to KeAndre Lambert-Smith late in the fourth quarter two weeks ago, which helped PSU to defeat Indiana. Last week, Allar looked confident against Maryland, throwing for 246 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions.

On the season, Allar has thrown 20 touchdowns to just one interception.

However, he will see a Michigan defense this week that is statistically, and possibly talent-wise as well, the best defense in the country. The Wolverines allow just over 140 passing yards per game, and again the last time Allar faced a truly good defense was against Ohio State, and he had his worst game of the season, as he threw for 191 yards and a touchdown with just a 42% completion percentage. He also threw the ball 42 times in that game (18-for-42), which I believe is way too many passes when you have running backs like Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton at your disposal. Allar needs to play one of the better games of his career today.

The third and final key for Penn State for its match-up with Michigan is that it must have a better offensive game plan than it did against OSU. There’s no denying it’s going to be tough to run the football, but the Nittany Lions offensive staff has to stick with the run game. Penn State can’t abandon the run in this game. I believe if you give Allen and Singleton the opportunities, then they will make some plays. I would also like to see them utilize both running backs in the passing game out of the backfield.

I also think the tight ends need to be an integral part of the offensive game plan as well. Allar is clearly comfortable throwing to his tight ends Tyler Warren and Theo Johnson. Each had touchdowns catches last week, and each of them can provide match-up problems. Warren and Johnson have combined for 10 touchdowns receptions this season.

Las Vegas has Michigan as a 4.5-point favorite.

So, let’s revisit all three keys. Penn State needs to get pressure on McCarthy, Allar needs to play a great game and the offensive game plan needs to put the offense in position to be able to create a rhythm or some momentum. I don’t know if the Nittany Lions can execute all those keys, but I did pick PSU to go 11-1 this season, so I’m sticking with that prediction.

My pick is Penn State 28, Michigan 27.