Log In


Reset Password

Luck of the draw

Experts agree that drawing a top ballot position dramatically increases a candidate's chances in an election.

The science is there to back them up.Citing the results of Benford's law in statistics, Ateneo de Manila University mathematics professor Dr. Felix Muga says that if a candidate is associated with the numeral 1 or is first on a list, he or she has 30 percent more chances of "occurring" or being chosen than others. Those close to his or her name have good but lesser chances.In the case of election ballots, Muga said the pattern is especially true with undecided voters who have a tendency to go to the number one on the list first.Jon Krosnick, a professor of psychology and political science at Ohio State agrees that those candidates who are listed first have an advantage. He said when voters are faced with a number of candidates who appear equal, some may simply go with the name that appears first.Alvin M. Greene, who has thrown a wrench into the Democratic party politics in South Carolina by winning that state's primary election, is a good example of how ballot position can work for a candidate. Greene won 60 percent of the vote, beating Charleston's Vic Rawl, a former state lawmaker and judge, to become the first major-party African-American in South Carolina to compete for the Senate since Reconstruction. He will be a long shot to unseat GOP Sen. Jim DeMint's chances for a second term in the fall election.Calling Greene an underdog candidate is an understatement. An unemployed man who lives with his father, he spent no money on his campaign other than the $10,000 he was able to cobble from his savings to file for the primary.It wasn't until this past Sunday - six weeks after his primary win - that South Carolina voters actually got to see Greene in public. Speaking at a monthly meeting of the NAACP at a junior high school, in Manning, S.C., he sounded more like commentator Glenn Beck than a liberal-leaning Democrat."Let's reclaim our country from the terrorists and the communists," he stated, and "parents have to take an active part in their child's education."Greene did get an endorsement of sorts from the Charleston RiverDogs, the New York Yankee's single-A ballclub. At a recent game, they handed out male Statue-of-Liberty figurines with Greene's face on them."Who better epitomizes the American dream that anything is possible than Mr. Greene?" said RiverDogs manager Dave Echols.There's no doubt that Greene's top ballot position made a huge difference in his winning the primary. With the Democratic party distancing itself from him, however, it appears he'll have to continue going it alone into the general election. One thing he will be able to feed off is the voter disdain for incumbent politicians heading into the November election.One blogger posted an amusing comment on a candidate's ballot position coupled with the voters' disgust over the current state of affairs in Washington."If he runs as the 'none of the above' he would win in most states," he said of the aspiring candidate of our day.By Jim Zbickjzbick@tnonline.com