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Can PSU change outcome against a top team?

“Players of the game on offense, we had quarterback Sean Clifford.” Insert long pause … “Clifford was also the Big Ten offensive Player of the Week.” Insert even longer pause.

The statement above - with the aforementioned emphatic long pauses came from Penn State head coach James Franklin at his Tuesday weekly press conference. It’s pretty obvious the pauses were meant as a message to both the media and the fan base, who have been critical of Clifford for most of his career for the Nittany Lions.

Whether you believe Clifford should be the starting quarterback or not, it is obvious that Franklin is not going to pull Clifford for the heralded five-star recruit Drew Allar, who has looked solid in limited time this season. So, with that being said, Clifford will most likely need to duplicate the type of performance he had a week ago - 295 yards passing and four touchdowns - this week against the No. 2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes if Penn State is going to pull off an upset.

Clifford does deserve credit for bouncing back after a slow start against the Gophers, but that slow start should absolutely worry Penn State faithful.

On Penn State’s first three possessions, the Nittany Lions ran just eight plays that resulted in 14 yards, two punts and a Clifford overthrow that resulted in an interception. If Clifford and the offense get off to a start similar to last week’s, the game could be over pretty quickly.

Clifford playing well is just one part of about five or six things that need to go right in order for Penn State to pull off the upset over the Buckeyes (Noon ET, FOX). I believe there is a formula for Penn State to stay in the game with Ohio State, but the question is can they execute it? That is especially the case because an integral part of that formula involves both running the football and holding the Ohio State run game in check - which are two facets of the game that failed a couple of weeks in Ann Arbor and led to a 41-17 throttling by Michigan.

Penn state did show improvement in the run game last week against a solid Minnesota defense, rushing for 175 yards and two touchdowns. Freshmen standouts Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 156 of those yards as they ran hard and with physicality.

Keeping the Ohio State offense off the field as much as possible is key. I also liked how the Penn State offense utilized the tight ends last week against Minnesota. Tight end Theo Johnson had five catches for 75 yards and a touchdown and tight end Tyler Warren had a big reception for 38 yards and a score. If Penn State can keep the Ohio State defense honest with its running attack and then attack the middle of the field with its tight ends, it will give them a shot to stay within striking distance throughout the game.

Now, comes probably the toughest task for Penn State in this match-up and that is keeping the Ohio State offense somewhat in check. It all comes down to the defensive front and linebackers getting a push up front and also making tackles. Missed tackles against the type of elite athletes the Buckeyes’ roster possesses will turn a three-yard run into a 30-yard run. Ohio State did not have much success in the run game last week against Iowa rushing for just 66 yards on 33 carries.

But is that just an outlier a Buckeye team averaging 204.9 rushing yards per game or can Penn State duplicate that type of defensive success? You would be hard-pressed to find a better running back duo in the country than Ohio State’s Miyan Williams (516 rushing yards) and TreVeyon Henderson (474 rushing yards) so the Nittany Lions’ task won’t be easy.

If Penn State is able to stop the run, then it has to then deal with Heisman Trophy Candidate CJ Stroud and his host of talented wide receivers. Stroud has thrown for an impressive 2,023 yards and 28 touchdowns. Wide receivers Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., Julian Fleming and Jayden Ballard are all having great seasons and that is with the highly-regarded Jaxon Smith-Njigba being out for most of the season with a hamstring injury. Smith-Njigba is expected to play today, but he will be limited.

The ideal situation for the Nittany Lions defense is to contain the Ohio State run and put the Buckeyes in third and long situations throughout the day and hope that Penn State’s length and athleticism on the outside can get some pass deflections and maybe even an interception or two.

Las Vegas has this line at Ohio State -15.5. As I noted, this game will come down to the trenches for Penn State. The Nittany Lions need to get enough of a push up front on offense to give Singleton and Allen room to operate and they need to get enough of a push up front on defense to get the Ohio State offense off schedule.

I do think Penn State will play competitive in this game - especially with the home crowd environment playing a factor. But until I see with my very own eyes both the offensive line and the defensive line put together a solid performance - or better - against a top-10 caliber team, I think it’s hard to predict anything different than the same result that we have seen against elite-level competition in the past.

I think the Nittany Lions will cover, but I believe the Buckeyes will make more explosive plays because of the explosive athletes they have on the outside and the physicality they possess on the offensive line.

My pick is Ohio State 31, Penn State 21.