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U.S. Census: Can we count on it?

Officials in the five-county Times News region are doing their part to get out the word concerning the upcoming 2020 U.S. Census, whose goal is to count every man, woman and child in the nation.

This number, then, becomes the basis of important distribution for federal funds to states and communities.

It is also extremely important because it determines a state’s representation in the U.S. House of Representatives. When the Founding Fathers set up the Constitution, they agreed on the Great Compromise in determining that the upper House — the Senate — would have two senators from each state, regardless of population, and that the lower house — the House of Representatives — would have an apportioned number from each state based on population, except that all states would have at least one. The number is fixed at 435.

Pennsylvania, for example, has 18 U.S. Representatives — nine Republicans and nine Democrats. It is expected that after the 2020 census, this number will fall to 17 because of continued population stagnation in the commonwealth and growth in warmer climes, such as Florida, Arizona and Texas.

Curiously, the word “census” is not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution. Article I, Section 2 provides for an “enumeration” every 10 years in a manner prescribed by Congress.

This section was changed by the 14th Amendment but kept the intent intact — “… the respective numbers of the ‘several states’ will be determined by ‘counting the whole number of persons in each State.’ ”

The goal of the census is simply stated — count every one of the 330 million people in the country (no undercount) but only once (no overcount) and in the right place (no location errors).

But how to execute this gargantuan task is another matter, especially in these perilous and somewhat chaotic times when mistrust is rampant.

There are major challenges to the census count, according to former Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt, who is now the Carnegie professor of public affairs and special adviser to the president of Columbia University: operational issues — partisan interference and deliberate disruptions.

We have already seen news stories that the Census Bureau (part of the Commerce Department) might not be geared up in time to conduct the census effectively. The bureau recently increased wages for census-takers because getting these workers in this nearly full economy had become difficult.

There also was concern among the immigrant community that the Trump administration’s efforts to include a citizenship question on the census forms would discourage participation. This effort failed in the courts, but suspicions still run deep.

Human nature being what it is, if a person feels threatened by filling out the form, he or she will mightily resist, even though there is a criminal penalty if caught.

If you think I am being an alarmist, check this: Estimates for this census indicates that the nonresponse rate could reach 35 percent. With the full support of Congress, the census launched an extensive paid advertising campaign, kicked off with a Super Bowl ad on Feb. 2.

Starting with the 2000 count, officials realized that they had to do something — quick. Until then, the Census Bureau relied on cooperation of Americans to respond, along with a reminder from public service broadcasters to return their forms. But that wasn’t working in the latter part of the 20th century, so a public-private partnership of unpaid civic organizations along with state and local public officials began. It worked, and participation ticked up.

To try to encourage participation, our local counties will be holding a series of meetings with municipal leaders. Carbon held its meeting this week.

The news is not all bleak. With technological advances, the process is being streamlined and with it comes savings of taxpayers’ money.

The 2020 address file update did not repeat a reinvent-the-wheel mentality. Instead it made extensive use of satellite imagery, third-party data providers and geographic information systems. This operation resulted in significant savings.

In 2020, many households likely have an Internet connection on which to receive mailed instructions about how to respond online. If, as expected, between 50 and 60% of households respond electronically, this will be another big cost-saver.

But let’s get real: You know as well as I do that this census is going to be a bear to conduct and execute properly. Our role is to do our small but important part — participate and make sure that our household information is as accurate as possible.

By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com