11-11 … That’s Penn State’s football record over the past two seasons.

What’s even more frustrating for Nittany Lions’ fans is that the .500 mark in the last two campaigns comes on the heels of a four-year stretch that saw Penn State go 42-11, win a Big Ten title (2016), and qualify for three New Year’s Six bowls.

So, needless to say it’s been a frustrating couple of years in Happy Valley, but the start of a new season always breeds hope and high expectations.

I’m here to break down the Nittany Lions’ schedule and give you my win/loss prediction for each game.

The 2022 season hinges on quarterback Sean Clifford staying healthy and the Penn State run game improving. Both of those things will be dependent on the offensive line adapting a more physical and nasty mentality up front. With a talented defense returning, if the offense can play to its potential, this could be a significant bounce back year for the Nittany Lions.

Week 1

Sept. 1 – at Purdue

Once again, Penn State will start the season on the road with a tough Big Ten opponent as it will face Purdue in a special Thursday night match-up. The Boilermakers lost two crucial playmakers from a season ago in wide receiver David Bell and defensive end George Karlaftis. Talented quarterback Aidan O’Connell returns and will once again put up big numbers this season in coach Jeff Brohm’s offense. The strength of the Nittany Lions’ defense, however, will be its secondary and I don’t think O’Connell has as talented of an arsenal at his disposal this season.

Prediction: Penn State 31, Purdue 17.

Week 2

Sept. 10 – vs. Ohio

The Bobcats were just 3-9 a season ago. Ohio does return a solid offensive line and it’s efficient running the football. But the Bobcats passing game and pass rush are areas of concern this season.

Prediction: Penn State 42, Ohio 10.

Week 3

Sept. 17 – at Auburn

This game comes down to if the Nittany Lions can hold Auburn running back Tank Bigsby in check. If Penn State lets the Tigers control the game with the run, it could be leaving Jordan-Hare Stadium with a loss. But Auburn, who was just 6-7 last season, has uncertainty at quarterback, wide receiver and holes on defense. I think Penn State is just the better team in all phases except for the run game.

Prediction: Penn State 24, Auburn 14.

Week 4

Sept. 24 – vs. Central Michigan

Head coach Jim McElwain has done a nice job with the Chippewas as he’s been 20-13 there since taking over three seasons ago. However, Central Michigan lost a lot of talent on the offensive line and were absolutely poached on defense from the transfer portal, losing six starters. It will be tough for the Chippewas to both stop the Penn State offense and protect its quarterback.

Prediction: Penn State 38, Central Michigan 7.

Week 5

Oct. 1 – vs. Northwestern

The Wildcats have fallen on some hard times as they finished last in the Big Ten last season. They should be improved this season, but they lack explosiveness on offense. Northwestern does have a talented backfield coming back and a strong offensive line as well, but holes on defense and their inability to come up with the big play on offense make this a good match-up for Penn State.

Prediction: Penn State 33, Northwestern 16.

Week 6

Oct. 15 – at Michigan

This is a game where Penn State could run into some trouble. The Michigan offense is expected to be one of its more explosive offenses in recent years, with its quarterbacks, starting running back and a host of talented pass catchers returning. The Wolverines defense, though, is going to be thin up front and they have a lot of players to replace in the secondary. This game will come down to the Penn State defense getting pressure up front both against the run and the pass, and the Nittany Lions have not been great in Ann Arbor as of late.

Prediction: Michigan, 27, Penn State 24.

Week 7

Oct. 22 – vs. Minnesota

In my opinion, this is the most important game on the Penn State schedule this season. This game could either help the Nittany Lions stay in the Big Ten race or send them spiraling into another disappointing season. It’s the “white out” game and the Golden Gophers are not the type of team that is used to playing in hostile environments. Plus, Penn State owes the Gophers for their upset win over the Nittany Lions in Minneapolis a few years ago. Once again, I think Penn State is the better team here and I don’t think Minnesota has the weapons on offense or the prowess up front defensively to pull this one out.

Prediction: Penn State 35, Minnesota 21.

Week 8

Oct. 29 – vs. Ohio State

So, here is where the Nittany Lions - similar to 2016 - could really shake things up in the Big Ten. This looks like it will be a noon kickoff and despite it not being the “white out” which the Ohio State game typically is, the crowd will still be electric, especially if the Nittany Lions are able to defeat the Gophers. The only problem is, the Buckeyes are stacked. Quarterback C.J. Stroud, wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back TreVeyon Henderson all return and are probably each the best at their respective position in the Big Ten. The defense was the issue last season for OSU and that’s what kept them out of the College Football Playoff, but that unit is expected to improve with the hiring of new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State. I think the Penn State offense will be able to move the ball against the Buckeyes, but the Ohio State offense is just too good.

Prediction: Ohio State 38, Penn State 28.

Week 9

Nov. 5 – at Indiana

Indiana is coming off a 2-10 season and it was 0-9 in Big Ten play. The Hoosiers basically have new players at each position and have a lot of work to do to get back to their winning ways from the 2020 season. A big issue for Indiana is that it still has a lot of questions marks on the offensive and defensive line.

Prediction: Penn State 44, Indiana 10.

Week 10

Nov. 12 – vs. Maryland

Maryland has the potential to have one of the most electric offenses in the Big Ten this season with Taulia Tagovailoa returning at quarterback and a very talented wide receiver room. The Terps offense will certainly challenge the Penn State defense, but once again the Nittany Lions secondary, which I believe is one of the best in Big Ten, will make that difficult. Defensively, Maryland looks like it’s going to have some issues yet again.

Prediction: Penn State 34, Maryland 27.

Week 11

Nov. 19 – at Rutgers

Rutgers had five wins a season ago and is getting better under head coach Greg Schiano, who is in his second stint with the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is excited about their new young quarterback, but all signs point to them struggling up front on the offensive line. The Scarlet Knights’ defensive line should possess a decent pass rush this season, but on the back end they are very inexperienced at both linebacker and in the secondary. I think Rutgers will be a scrappy team all year long, but just won’t have enough firepower to beat the big dogs.

Prediction: Penn State 31, Rutgers 13.

Week 12

Nov. 26 – vs. Michigan State

Quarterback Payton Thorne returns as does a solid receiving core for Michigan State, but explosive running back Kenneth Walker III is gone and the Spartans don’t have anyone with near his talent on this year’s roster. Pair that with a defense that is coming off of being one of the worst against the pass in the country a year ago and I see the Spartans taking a step back this season.

Prediction: Penn State 27, Michigan State 17.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I have the Nittany Lions finishing at 10-2. The consensus over/under for wins this season for Penn State is 8.5. I think the Nittany Lions are a lock to win nine games in 2022 with the talent they have returning. I’m going to take the James Franklin approach and let the offensive line prove itself, but if that unit does play better this season, this offense could be special with Clifford and receivers Parker Washington, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and proven playmaker Mitchell Tinsley, who transferred in from Western Kentucky. Add in blue chip running back recruits Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen along with veteran Keyvonne Lee and one of the best tight end rooms in the country and you could see an immediate change in the way Penn State plays offense this season. As I noted, the defense is going to be good. This season hinges on the success of the offense. But take that over 8.5 wins to the bank, you heard it here first!