As new cases of COVID-19 continue to be diagnosed, Secretary of Health Rachel Levine said Saturday the state is bending the curve, but the surge is still coming. It could possibly hit the Northeast later this week.

“The surge won’t be a tidal wave,” Levine said. “The measures are working.”

Levine said daily numbers are not increasing on the pace they had been.

On Sunday the department reported 1,178 additional positive cases of COVID-19, bringing the statewide total to 22,833. The department also reported 13 new deaths among positive cases, bringing the statewide total to 507.

Carbon County has 102 cases with three deaths. Lehigh County has 1,684 cases, with 18 deaths. Monroe County has 795 cases with 23 deaths. Northampton has 1,082 cases, with 23 deaths. Schuylkill has 188 cases with two deaths.

Previously the state was recording an exponential rise of COVID-19, with the chart going up almost in a straight line.

“Through mitigation, we’ve been able to bend in a more linear way. We’re not seeing as many new cases as we have before,” Levine said.

The state is studying several models, from the University of Pittsburgh, University of Pennsylvania and University of Washington.

The models indicate the surge of cases is likely in the Northeast and Southeast over the next week or more, but not all areas of the state. The northeast and southeast portions of the state are considered hot spots and the state is looking at adding a mass testing site.

The surge is expected later in west and south-central Pennsylvania.

“As we reach the surge, a wave of new cases that will go up and down but not the tidal wave that will overwhelm our health care system. The measures we have put in place are working.”

This weekend Giant joined area grocery store chains in limiting the number of people in the store at one time. Lowe’s has also put a restriction in place.

That leads to questions about when and how Pennsylvania will open for business again.

When Pennsylvania does open up again, Levine said it will be gradual. Areas that begin to clear will open first.

“We are watching many different factors,” Levine said. “We’re going to be looking at the numbers of cases, the numbers of new cases. Percentage of lab results that are positive per capita. When we see incident percentage of cases going down, that’s the time in certain parts of Pennsylvania to be able to lift the business ban and allow people to go out.

However, Levine said, “Then we’re going to watch closely to make sure there are no new spikes. We’re going to do that in a progressive watch throughout the state, watching very carefully for new cases, new spikes of COVID-19.”

This is the method recommended by Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Deborah Birx of the coronavirus task force.

“And that’s the way we will proceed in Pennsylvania,” Levine said.

But she reminded people, “The data determines the timetable, the virus determines the timetable, not us. We’ll be watching conditions on the ground.”

“But we’re not there yet. We made progress but we need to continue, especially right now with the mitigation efforts the governor has put into place.”

Testing

On Friday, Lehigh Valley Health Network, citing a shortage of tests, announced new criteria for testing people suspected of having coronavirus.

Under the new criteria, only symptomatic people ages 65 and over, symptomatic people at a higher risk of complications and other defined symptomatic at-risk people will be tested for COVID-19.

Levine said there have been sporadic shortages of test kits and reagents, and the department will be working with LVHN.

“We’re pushing out testing as far as possible in Pennsylvania.”

She said the department is examining how to factor in nonconfirmed cases in the totals. Those would be people who have symptoms but are not tested because they are not at risk.

Levine said at this point Pennsylvania has enough regular beds, ICU beds and ventilators.