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Eagles hope draft bet yields Super payoff

It is always a huge risk for an NFL team to package a wealth of draft picks to reach for a golden prize near the top of board, but the promise of that one magical component is sometimes too great to resist.

For teams in that dangerous but delicious situation, the league has a special place they can go: Cleveland.The Browns are eternally pinned to the upper reaches of the draft board and annually unsure what should be done with the opportunity. Not that long ago, a team knocked on Cleveland's door holding a bagful of picks if the Browns would just part with their highest one, and, of course, a deal was made.But the example at hand is not from last year, when the Eagles essentially gave up two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and a third-round pick to get Cleveland's second pick in the draft and the chance to take quarterback Carson Wentz.The trade that matters at the moment, and the one that could yield the greatest of fruits on Feb. 5, is the 2011 deal in which the Atlanta Falcons gave the Browns two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and two fourth-round picks for the sixth spot in the draft and the right to select wide receiver Julio Jones. Right now, that looks pretty good.At the time, however, Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff was advised not to make the deal. The counsel was given by his former boss, the guy for whom he had served as director of scouting for six years, some fellow named Bill Belichick.In the world of Belichick and in his philosophy of team building, one does not expend a great many assets in a blind "Let's Make a Deal bargain for whoever is behind the curtain pointed to by Carol Merrill. It could turn out to be Jones, no question, but it could also be Charles Rogers, and where are you then?Call it irony if you like, but the ultimate validation of Atlanta's gamble might arrive against Belichick and the Patriots. That doesn't mean Belichick was wrong. It's hard to argue with his method of putting together a roster. It just means that Dimitroff beat the odds and, for those who do, the rewards can be immense.That is also the hope of Howie Roseman, who also went against accepted NFL wisdom - and his own previous stance - to move up for Wentz. Will the Eagles ultimately be as fortunate as the Falcons and reach the Super Bowl with the object of their draft strategy? Well, that was the idea, even if a risky and expensive one."The history of trading up for one player, when you look at those trades, isn't good for the team trading up and putting a lot of resources into it. Because the (teams) who are really good at the draft, if you're hitting on 60 percent of your first-round picks, that's a pretty good track record. So really, the more chances you get, the more tickets to the lottery you get, the better you should be doing," Roseman said.He made that statement at an analytics conference in 2015 during his powerless purgatory within the organization, and it was perceived as a backhanded slap at Chip Kelly's unsuccessful attempt to move up for Marcus Mariota. One year later, however, he did exactly that.Should the Eagles get to the Super Bowl with Wentz, the other side of the trade ledger will cease to matter, anyway, and isn't that the point of all this?It certainly was the point for Atlanta when Dimitroff ignored the warnings of his mentor and bet everything on Jones. The Falcons made it to the cashier's window to collect. The Eagles hope to be standing in line right behind them.