No. 11 ranked Penn State is riding a dominant three-game win streak as they look to finish strong against a struggling Michigan State squad this week in the regular season finale.

If the Nittany Lions are able to come away with the win, it would improve their record to 10-2 and would put them squarely in the running for a New Year’s Six Bowl berth.

I know there are plenty of Penn State faithful who are disappointed with its two losses to Michigan and Ohio State this season. The Wolverines and Nittany Lions have battled to a 3-3 tie in their last six match-ups, but Penn State’s struggles against Ohio State have been prevalent over the past decade - albeit for the most part, PSU has been competitive against the Buckeyes.

This isn’t the year to overreact to those losses, however, as Penn State was just a combined 11-11 over the previous two seasons, so a 10-win regular season is a huge step in the right direction.

The Nittany Lions needed a bounce back campaign and to their credit, they were able to do just that. A huge concern coming into this season was the Penn State rushing attack, which was one of the worst ground games in all of the country in 2021. Development and maybe even more importantly the building of depth of the offensive line unit has helped to improve a run game that has also benefited from the infusion of talented freshmen running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

Penn State’s run game averaged a dismal 107.8 yards per game in 2021 and so far this season it has averaged a much improved 184.1 yards per game on the ground. Singleton (863 rushing yards) and Allen (748 rushing yards) are the first freshman duo in Big Ten history to both rush for 700-plus yards in a season. Since 2000, Allen and Singleton are one of four FBS true freshman duos over 700 yards in a season. The two young backs have helped Penn State average an exceptional 221 yards rushing per game in its current three game win streak.

Good complementary football will once again be the approach this week as Michigan State (5-6) comes to Beaver Stadium later today (4 p.m. ET, FS1). There should be ample opportunities for the Nittany Lions to do just that as the Spartans have struggled to defend the run and move the football on offense.

Michigan State ranks 100th in the country in run defense (180 yards per game) and it ranks 105th in the country in rushing offense (121 yards per game). Forcing the Spartans to depend solely on their passing attack will be an important key in the game and that match-up favors Penn State. Michigan State is -1 in turnover differential on the season and it’s quarterback Payton Thorne has thrown 10 interceptions.

The Nittany Lions showed once again last week that they’re proficient at creating turnovers as they took advantage of three Rutgers miscues, scoring on two of them, with two fumble return touchdowns. Ji’Ayir Brown (70 yards) and Kobe King (14 yards) scored on the fumble returns.

Las Vegas has Penn State as a 19-point favorite.

The Nittany Lions have outscored their last three opponents (Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers) by a combined 130-24. The recipe shouldn’t change for PSU this week as it should be able utilize its improved run game, and its ability to get after the passer (3.1 sacks per game) and create turnovers (+6 on the season) to come away with a win over a struggling Spartans squad.

My pick is Penn State 34, Michigan State 10.