Behind the Plate: Who should be Phils’ leadoff hitter?
The Phillies’ 300-million man is hitting well below that mark. Or to be more precise, it’s 27.27 million per year.
No, it’s not Bryce Harper, it’s Trea Turner. (Harper is their $327 million man).
Turner signed an 11-year, $300 million pact in December 2022 that will run through the 2033 season. He will turn 33 on June 30, and he has seven more years in Phillies pinstripes.
Since he arrived, Turner hasn’t lived up to his expectations. How many of you are cringing?
It’s the time of the season where the Phillies have to take a hard look at the lineup, and not just Turner.
But, back to Turner ...
After Thursday’s game against the Padres, Turner had a .226 average with seven homers, 19 RBIs, 53 strikeouts, 17 walks, but more importantly he has a .637 OPS (on base plus slugging) and an OBP (on-base percentage) of .279.
His OPS and OBP have many doubting whether Turner should be the Phils’ leadoff hitter. Those numbers are near the bottom of active players, and are more comparable to a backup infielder on the bench trying to hang on. It’s not good.
Another factor not in Turner’s favor is his strikeout-to-walk ratio. So far, Turner has 1,081 strikeouts and 400 walks in his career. This year, he has had a tendency to swing early and not take pitches.
In the field, he already had committed six errors after having eight all of last season.
Let’s face it, Turner is off to an all-around bad start.
Manager Don Mattingly recently gave Turner a vote of confidence as his man at the top.
Yet, Mattingly changed his mind Tuesday when he dropped Turner to the second spot, and his production suddenly changed. Kyle Schwarber was back in the leadoff spot again.
Dropped down to second, Turner had two hits — one a homer — and an RBI Tuesday, and he followed that with a homer Wednesday. But before the game, Turner had six hits in his last 40 at-bats (.150) with 10 strikeouts and three walks.
Now, we have to wait and see if Mattingly keeps Turner in the two hole when the Phils open a weekend series Friday in L.A.
To Mattingly’s credit, he has adjusted quickly to any slumps, constantly juggling the lineup. Adolis Garcia is a prime example, as he has been moved up and down the lineup to try and snap him out of his doldrums.
Mattingly’s sudden decision of Turner is a good sign, and Turner might be a good fit in the two-hole, balancing the lineup through the first four spots if Alec Bohm hits fourth.
However, the glaring problem is that the Phils — unless Turner’s turns it around — don’t have a pure leadoff hitter (Or maybe they do).
Crawford Conundrum ... At Lehigh Valley, Justin Crawford was their leadoff hitter, and he produced a .322 average with an .831 OPS and a .585 OBP. Crawford also swiped 145 bases in four seasons, struck out 208 times and walked 145 times. His strikeout/walk ratio isn’t bad.
He looked like the natural fit for the leadoff hitter, but Crawford has only six at -bats there and has gone hitless. Instead, he has been buried at the bottom of the lineup in the seventh, eighth and ninth slot.
Crawford should be at the top of the lineup, and working through his issues. He has struggled against left-handed pitching (1-for-17; .059) and Mattingly has begun to platoon him with Edmundo Sosa and Brandon Marsh.
Entering Friday’s game, Crawford had a .231 average with two homers, 12 RBIs, seven stolen bases, but he has a paltry .297 OBP and a .635 OPS. He also has a ground ball rate of 62.9, being the only qualified hitter above 59.
He is in the middle of a 1-for-16 spell, and has 13 walks with 33 strikeouts in his 160 at-bats.
Still, it’s worth giving Crawford a shot at the top. Let him work his way against lefties, and pull him for a game or two if he is in a dire slump. Crawford can still give you somewhat of a balanced lineup with Turner hitting second.
That would bump Schwarber to cleanup, and that’s not totally a bad thing. Sure, you lose power at the top, but you have two potential table setters.
In Comparison ... If Turner does go back to the leadoff spot, here is a look at some of his competitors there.
The Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani was hitting .270 with an OPS of .873 and an OBP of .403; Detroit rookie Kevin McGonigle was hitting .297 with an OPS of .832 and an OBP of .401; Tampa Bay’s Yandy Diaz was hitting .312 with an OPS of .885 and an OBP of .388, and even the Yankees’ Trent Grisham — hitting just .201 — had a .704 OPS and a .319 OBP.
Bombs From A Different Site ... If Schwarber is back in the leadoff spot, he may produce some better numbers.
In 82 games at the top, Schwarber had hit 33 homers with an OBP of .346 and an OPS of .915 and a .569 slugging percentage. He had 102 strikeouts and 53 walks.
Heading into Friday, Schwarber was hitting .238 with his .353 OBP and .957 OPS, but led the league with a .604 slugging percentage due to his MLB-high 21 homers. He struck out 79 times and walked 32.
Is Time On His Side? ... It was just a year ago that Turner won his second league batting title, albeit with a .304 average with an .812 OPS and a .355 OBP.
Turner won his first batting title with a .328 mark in a split season with Washington and the Dodgers in 2021 with career-highs in OPS (.911) and OBP (.385) in a season of 100 games or more. He also stole a career-high 32 bases that year.
In 2016, Turner was the runner-up for Rookie of the Year with his .342 average, a .937 OPS, .370 OBP with 59 strikeouts and 14 walks.
These numbers aren’t truly reflective of his leadoff status, as Turner bounced around the lineup with the Nationals and Dodgers.
Instead, it will be a matter of whether he can be consistently productive the rest of the way.
He began this season hitting .182 in just five March games, then he jumped to .267 in April with four homers, 11 RBIs with 23 strikeouts and 11 walks.
During May, Turner is hitting .191 with three homers, seven RBIs with 25 strikeouts and five walks.
Alive In ‘25 ... Last season, Turner hit .291 in April with a homer and 11 RBIs, and he heated up in May with a .317 clip with four homers and 14 RBIs. Through the first two months, Turner hit .300 with five homers and 25 RBIs, and he was hitting either leadoff or second.
Turner kept a consistent pace the rest of the season, as his average never dipped below .268 in any given month, and he hit .328 in August and .400 in September.
Coming Up Big? ... Turner has taken the wrath of not producing the big hit, and that has been underlined in the postseason.
Last year, Turner hit .235 in the postseason with four runs, four hits, three RBIs, a .316 OBP and a .551 OPS. Overall with the Phillies, Turner has a .296 average with three homers, seven RBIs, nine walks and 18 strikeouts.
He Doesn’t Fit ... In a recent Times News Lehighton Facebook poll, the question was posed on whether or not Turner should stay in the leadoff spot.
An overwhelming 87 percent believed Turner should not hit leadoff and 13 percent thought he should stay.
Readers Write
Not A Fan
Dear Jeff,
(Turner) can’t get on base. His batting average is terrible, he doesn’t draw walks, and he certainly doesn’t take many pitches. He consistently swings at the first pitch (like the ninth inning against Cleveland) or swings at pitches way outside the strike zone.
The entire lineup needs an adjustment. I had a glimmer of hope after Mattingly took over, but they are in the same rut of not scoring runs and wasting good pitching by their starters.
Melissa Hager
Lehighton
Who Else?
Dear Jeff,
At first, I thought no (to Turner leading off). But what are your other options?
Tyler Scheuer
Newtown Grant
“Tyler’s Amazing Balancing Act.”
Hit The Road
Dear Jeff,
I’d happily drive him (Turner) to the airport, and I would give him away to any taker.
John Knebles
Philadelphia
Scrapbook ... In each column, I will review the career of a local standout.
Max Nolter played a key role as a catcher/designated hitter in Marian’s district championship in his junior year of 2017, hitting .455 with 27 RBIs. The following season, Nolter led the Colts to a runner-up district finish, hitting .359 with 21 RBIs.
He then took his game to Elmira College, where he filled the same role. Nolter played in 22 games, 12 in his sophomore year. He had a .326 on-base percentage.
Your thoughts are always welcomed and will be published; email them to tnsports@tnonline.com