It’s the big one that Penn State fans have been waiting for – the undefeated and seventh ranked Nittany Lions facing off with the undefeated and second ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus at noon today (FOX).

The question is, will Penn State finally dig itself out of the Ohio State hole?

PSU head coach James Franklin is just 1-8 against the Buckeyes, while OSU head coach Ryan Day is 4-0 against the Nittany Lions. It’s the 39th time these two teams are meeting, and it’s the 22nd time where both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25.

To start the season, many fans and media alike believed that this was the season that Penn State could finally knock off Ohio State after coming close so many times since the Nittany Lions’ last win over the Buckeyes in 2016.

I agreed with that sentiment coming into this season as well, predicting Penn State to win this game in my preseason PSU schedule prediction and breakdown column. So now, let’s dig into this match-up.

So far this season, the bright spot for both of these teams has been their defenses. The Buckeyes rank third in the Big Ten in scoring defense (9.7 points per game; third nationally), third in total defense (263.5 yards per game; seventh nationally), third in pass defense (154.3 ypg; fourth nationally) and fourth in rushing defense (109.2 ypg; 22nd nationally).

The Nittany Lions’ defense has been downright suffocating and has been elite at getting after the quarterback, which is something it’s going to need to continue to excel at against Ohio State.

In order for PSU to get the OSU offense off schedule and more importantly force Buckeyes’ turnovers, it’s going to need to put pressure on quarterback Kyle McCord. McCord has struggled at times this season when under pressure.

The Penn State defense ranks No. 1 in the country in total defense (193.7 ypg), pass defense (121.2 ypg), completion percentage (49.1) and sacks per game (4.5). PSU ranks second in the country in scoring defense (8.0 ppg) and rushing defense (72.5 ypg).

On the offensive side of the ball, Ohio State is dealing with some injuries. Star wideout Emeka Egbuka didn’t travel to Purdue last week and his status for Saturday is unknown, but one would guess that he will do his very best to suit up.

Running backs TreVeyon Henderson, Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams have all dealt with injuries this season as well, but they are expected play. Quickly, switching over to the defensive side of the ball, one more Buckeye player to keep an eye on is starting corner Denzel Burke. Burke is a difference maker for OSU in the secondary and that would be a huge loss for the Buckeyes if he can’t go.

Again, the key for Penn State will be to get pressure on McCord (1,651 yards, 11 TDs/1 INT), which will limit his ability to get the ball to Marvin Harrison Jr. (604 receiving yards, five TDs), who is widely regarded as the best receiver in the country. The Ohio State rushing attack is ranked 92nd in the country, so I don’t see the Buckeyes leaning on their run game too much in this one.

I usually lean towards the defensive end of the game in games like this when talking about the most important unit on the field, but I think in this one, I’m going to go with the Nittany Lions’ offense. As much as fans want to see more explosive plays from the Penn State offense, I think you’re going to see an old school approach to this game.

There’s no doubt that quarterback Drew Allar (1,254 yards, 12 TDs/0 INT) has to hit a few big pass plays during the game, especially on third down, and he must also protect the football like he has been doing on the season (0 INTs). The fact that the speedy Harrison Wallace III returned last week from injury at receiver and can now be paired with Keandre Lambert-Smith (402 yards, three TDs) is big for the PSU passing game and will help in that department, but what I think you’re going to see is the Nittany Lions dedicate themselves to the run game.

Penn State has been No. 1 in the country for the past few weeks in time of possession and one of the reasons its defense has been so good this season is because the defense has been rested and fresh to rush the passer. If Nicholas Singelton (362 yards, six TDs) and Kaytron Allen (375 yards, three TDs) can get going early in the run game, I think that will be a real positive indicator towards Penn State’s chances to get out of Columbus with a “W.”

Las Vegas has Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite over Penn State.

The Nittany Lions have been a second half team all season long, so don’t panic if they’re trailing at the half. As I said, if Penn State’s run game gets going early, that will be a good sign for it. It’s all about just playing complementary football for the Nittany Lions once again this week. Like I said a few weeks ago, this team isn’t flashy, but it’s playing winning football.

If the Nittany Lions are able to run the football and move the sticks like they have been doing and therefore control the clock, and then get after McCord and create a few turnovers, you’re going to see Penn State get the big win it’s been looking for over the Buckeyes. And I believe that’s what is going to happen this afternoon.

My pick is Penn State 27, Ohio State 20.