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Times News writers, area coaches talk NCAA tournament

It’s been an intense calendar year.

In the grand scheme of things, sports are just a microcosm of the bigger picture in life.

While COVID’s impact on other elements of society has been far more devastating, its hit on the sports world has still been monumental.

Many Division 1 college athletes had their dreams crushed in 2020 as both the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments were canceled due to the virus. It was the last chance for many to culminate years of hard work and commitment. There were no mulligans or do-overs. Their careers unexpectedly ended in the blink of an eye.

Maybe that’s why it feels like the stakes are so much higher in 2021. Sixty-eight men’s college programs will be back in action this weekend and the hosting arenas will have fans up-to 25-percent capacity.

We were lucky enough to sit down with a couple of local boys basketball coaches and personalities to give our opinions and picks for the upcoming tournament on a special edition of TN Tournament Talk.

Panther Valley’s Pat Crampsie and Lehighton’s Trevor Miller joined Emmett McCall, Brad Hurley and myself to talk hoops, and it’s safe to say everyone agreed that it would be an exciting tournament.

Gonzaga is the No. 1 overall seed. McCall said it was rightfully deserved, and that the Zags have a fairly easy path to the Final 4. However, the sports editor said there are plenty of upset opportunities elsewhere in the field.

“I thought the seeding was really good this year - I didn’t see many major surprises,” said McCall.

“I do think it’s a typical tourney in that there are some 12 and 13 seeds that are capable of pulling upsets in the early rounds. All of the 12 seeds are very capable of continuing the 12-5 tradition of upsets. I picked two of them in my pool, but I think all four have a chance to win.”

Locally, Villanova and Drexel will be competing in the field of 68. Nova will take on 12-seeded Winthrop and No. 16 Drexel will have its hands full with No. 1 Illinois in the Midwest Region.

How high are hopes for Villanova this season?

“The first-round game that I’m most looking forward to is Villanova vs. Winthrop,” Miller said. “Villanova is reeling without Collin Gillespie and Winthrop has lost one game all year. Opposite trends here with these two teams. I like Winthrop to pull the 5-12 upset.”

There are four play-in games scheduled for Thursday set to begin at 5:10 p.m. with the remaining teams in the field of 64 playing Friday and Saturday - a slight day change from previous years when opening round games were held on Thursday and Friday.

Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans are often extremely talented and highly ranked, but this year, they will fight for a real tournament berth against UCLA during Thursday’s nightcap.

“It’s very strange seeing Michigan State in a play-in game,” said Crampsie. “But this has been about as strange of a year as you can get. I do think you are seeing more kids gravitate toward the mid-majors because of the increased exposure those schools are getting and the opportunity to be a focal point right away ... With that being said, I don’t think anyone would be shocked if MSU made a run.”

Hurley, a constant threat to win the TN High School Football Grid Pick competition every year, was quick to make excuses ­- just in case his predictions turned out to be poor.

“This is the least amount of time I’ve spent watching college basketball with our high school basketball season being so busy,” Hurley said. “I’m not very confident in my picks, I just went with teams that I know have elite level talent that can get up-and-down the floor.”

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

(Disclaimer - we’re not liable for any financial gains or losses)

West Region

Oklahoma (8) vs Missouri (9)

Oklahoma averages roughly three less turnovers per game than Mizzou and could be a big factor down the stretch, Mizzou’s Xavier Pinson is a beast, however, and his team does has an impressive win against Illinois this season.

Creighton (5) vs UCSB (12)

Creighton shoots 64% from the line, 329th in the nation. Like the dog and points.

Ohio (13) vs Virginia (4)

This is a very dangerous Ohio team. Due to COVID-19 reasons, we’re not sure who will be available for UVA. Vegas opened the action 10.5, got bet down to 8.5 immediately. Keep an eye on this one. Ohio is top-30 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 13th in effective field-goal percentage. Virginia, when healthy, is a top-12 offense and a top-35 defense. The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, which always leaves the door for a team such as Ohio to get hot and keep it close. I have mild interest in the dog with the points.

Kansas (3) vs E. Washington (14)

Some of the Jayhawks’ best players didn’t initially travel with the team earlier this week due to COVID-19 protocols. Keep an eye on this one. I’m not sure Eastern Washington has enough firepower to win outright, but could be a decent dog bet with the points. Offensively, the Eagles play at a top-30 tempo and possession length and are top-35 across the nation in two-point percentage in addition to being a top-10 foul-shooting team. Again, they play nobody, but could be an interesting bet if Kansas doesn’t have everyone.

On the flip side, I hope Kansas is healthy. Nobody is talking about them and they’ve had quite an under appreciated season. Kansas doesn’t have one single bad loss to its name (Texas 2x, OK St., Baylor, Oklahoma, Tennessee, WVU). All but one loss was on the road. They’re 3-1 on neutral court - the lone loss to Gonzaga on opening night. Kansas is a top-10 adjusted defensive-efficient team. Don’t sleep on em’ if they’re a full strength.

East Region

Colorado (5) vs Georgetown (12)

Georgetown is playing incredible basketball right now and the public is drinking the Kool-Aid. Thus, if you don't have them advancing to the Round of 32, you might be able to pick up some leverage in your bracket pool by sticking with the favorite, Colorado, who is having a very good season. COL only had one loss away from home during the regular season and is 3-0 on neutral court. Take this for what it is - the Buffalos are holding their opponents to one of the longest average possession lengths in the country and are indeed top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Hoyas are outside the top 300 in turnovers per game (protecting the ball), but are indeed playing elite basketball down the stretch.

Texas (3) vs Abilene Christian (14)

The Longhorns are coming on at the right time and do not have a bad loss on their resume. Don’t sleep on Abilene Christian, though, who owns the highest defensive turnover percentage in the country.

South Region

Texas Tech (6) vs Utah St. (11)

I know, you’re looking for an 11-seed upset somewhere. This might be a good game, but I’m not running to take the Aggies. The line currently favors Texas Tech by 4.5 and I think that’s fair, but I do like them straight-up a little more in this spot. The Red Raiders are one of the few teams without a single “bad” loss on its resume and have wins over Texas (2x), LSU and Oklahoma. Of their 10 losses, only two were by double-digits against Baylor and Houston - two Div. 1 powerhouses.

The Red Raiders are top-35 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Aggies actually have a pair of wins over San Diego St. this year, but my pick is Texas Tech to move on.

Arkansas (3) vs Colgate (14)

First of all, the SEC is loaded this season and Arkansas is a very talented team. It’s true, the Ivy League only played conference games this season. Urban legend says it’s hard to be an opponent three times in one year. Well, Colgate defeated Holy Cross and Boston University four times each, while topping Army three times. For what it’s worth, Colgate is shooting 40-percent from three-point land this year. In my opinion, they’re worth a tiny wager as current 8.5 dogs and are in a reasonable position for an upset.

Midwest region

Loyola Chicago (8) vs Georgia Tech (9)

Cameron Krutwig (Loyla) is a beast. His offensive rating is seventh in the nation among qualifying candidates. Krutwig is a 6-9, 255 senior who can hit foul shots and is good defensively … GT can counter with 6-9, 233 center Moses Wright, who ranks inside the top-30 in offensive rating himself. This game could be played through the post quite a bit on both sides and seems like a grinder. Sure, Loyola plays absolutely nobody in its conference, and even has a few losses that will make you sick to your stomach but owns an adjusted defensive rating that is No. 1 in the nation. Neither team shoots the three-pointer well. G-Tech has losses to Mercer (c’mon), Clemson (subpar year) and played a 4OT game vs Georgia State (c’mon again). My lean is Loyola and I like the under, depending on where the money is flowing before tipoff.

Houston (2) vs Clev. St. (15)

I like the under (135) in this one. There are 350 teams in Div. 1 college basketball. Cleveland St., via KenPom stats, ranks 282nd in adjusted tempo, 217th in average possession length and 199th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

For Houston, the American Conference isn’t much to write home about, but their numbers are fairly historic. The Shastas (cool nickname) rank 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 1st defensively in EFG% and are top-15 in the nation in defensive three-point percentage, two-point percentage, block percentage and steal percentage (is that enough?). So, is Clev. St. going to score? If they do, it won’t come easily or quickly.

FINAL FOUR PICKS

Carlucci

- Gonzaga, Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma St.

Crampsie

- Gonzaga, Michigan, Baylor and Oklahoma St.

Hurley

- Gonzaga, Alabama, Baylor, Illinois.

Miller

- Gonzaga, Alabama, Baylor and Illinois.

McCall

- Gonzaga, Alabama, Ohio St. and Illinois.