Holding on.

That’s what Penn State has been able to do over the past two weeks against quality ranked opponents. To some, saying “holding on” might seem as if I’m being a bit down on the Nittany Lions last two big wins, but in fact it’s actually the opposite. Holding on to leads is something Penn State has struggled with over the past few seasons. There’s no better proof of that than the Nittany Lions’ one-point losses to Ohio State in the last two seasons, both of which they held double digit leads late in the game.

This team has figured out a way to make that one play, to make the one stop you need in order to finish out these games. Against Iowa, it was a strong defensive stand late in the game, ending it on their terms by getting a first down through the run game, even with Iowa stacking the box.

Last week against Michigan, it was a deep touchdown pass from Sean Clifford to KJ Hamler for 53 yards at the beginning of the fourth quarter that gave Penn State just enough cushion to win the game. The big hookup came right after Michigan climbed within a touchdown at the end of the third quarter, with a ton of momentum on the Wolverines’ side. Of course, there was the Michigan drop in the end zone late in the fourth that would’ve potentially tied the game, which was a break for the Nittany Lions, but they once again ended the game on their own terms, running three straight times and coming away with a first down to seal the game.

There are many things this team has to clean up if it wants to challenge for a Big Ten championship and a College Football Playoff berth, but so far it has improved immensely in finishing games. It hasn’t been pretty, but at the end of day Penn State is walking away with wins and wins against good football teams.

One thing the Nittany Lions certainly need to clean up, and it needs to be at least improved this week, is offensive consistency. Too many times this season the offense has gone into lulls where it not only does not produce points, but goes three-and-out. So far, Penn State has been fortunate that it hasn’t come back to bite it, although it almost did last week. After jumping out to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, with their third score coming at the 7:22 mark in the second, Penn State did not score again until 13:14 left to go in the fourth quarter.

During that offensive lull, the Nittany Lions punted five times with four three-and-outs and one four-play drive. That many three-and-outs can hurt you against an average team let alone a good team like Michigan, and certainly will not be a recipe for success on the road at Michigan State (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) this afternoon.

I think the key to the offense getting more consistent is going with freshman Noah Cain more than the rest of the running backs in the four-man rotation. I know Coach Franklin has reiterated week after week he has confidence in all four guys and they’re going to continue to play all four guys, but Cain is the running back that will get you four or five yards on early downs almost every time. When you’re in second and five and second and four, it’s a lot easier to move the sticks, which keeps your defense much fresher. Last week, the Penn State defense was on the field way too much in the second half and it showed.

But with all that said I’ve still been impressed with the offense. The offense has taken care of the ball, its been very explosive with Clifford having 27 completions of 20 yards or more and its averaging 40 points per game and almost 440 yards of total offense per game. The offense is in a good place, it just needs to eliminate the lulls.

Now, onto No. 6 ranked Penn State’s (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) opponent this week in Michigan State (4-3, 2-2 Big Ten). If this game wasn’t in East Lansing, I would say I think the Nittany Lions could possibly run away with this one, but East Lansing has not been kind to Penn State. The Nittany Lions have lost 5-out-of-6 to the Spartans and their last two in East Lansing, so this afternoon’s game is certainly going to be a challenging one.

The good news is I think Penn State holds an edge over Michigan State in almost every category. Michigan State like always boasts a strong defense, ranking 22nd in the country in total defense and 27th in the country in rush defense. But I think the Spartans “D” can be manipulated, especially with the speed Penn State has on offense and with the way the Nittany Lions offensive line has been playing (named to Joe Moore Award midseason honor roll – Joe Moore Award is awarded to the best offensive line unit in college football)

Michigan State has given up 34.3 points per game over its last three (Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin) and gave up 323 rushing yards to Ohio State and 222 rushing yards to Wisconsin. I think this is a game where the Penn State offense could put together a complete balanced performance with both explosive plays and consistent drives by running the football.

Offensively, Michigan State’s rushing game is a mess. The Spartans lost two running backs to the transfer portal over the past few weeks, including talented running back Connor Heyward. They are ranked just 110th in the country in rushing offense, which means quarterback Brian Lewerke will be slinging the ball all over the field to try and move the Spartans offense.

Lewerke has had some of his biggest games in his career against the Nittany Lions, so it’s imperative that PSU Defensive Coordinator Brent Pry brings pressure to get him off schedule. When the Penn State defense has struggled this season, it’s been when capable quarterbacks have been allotted time in the pocket to survey the field. Shea Patterson showed that last week as well as Kenny Pickett in the Pitt matchup. With Michigan State’s lack of a run game and Penn State’s ability to stop the run (66 rushing yards per game, ranked fourth in the country) if Pry dials up the pressure and the rushers can get home or make Lewerke uncomfortable it could be a high turnover day for the Spartans.

Las Vegas has Penn State as a six-point favorite.

Like I said, if this game wasn’t in East Lansing I would go bigger here, because after breaking down the matchup I feel much better about a dominant Penn State win than I did earlier in the week. But I just think with the rain forecast and all the struggles the Nittany Lions have had with Michigan State, this is going to be a tighter game throughout and then Penn State finishes strong in the fourth quarter.

My Pick is: Penn State 30, Michigan State 17.