Penn State enters week 7 having to play its most important game of the season — up until this point. The Nittany Lions will be on the road in Kinnick Stadium later tonight (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) to face off with the No. 17 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes.

I wrote in my preseason schedule breakdown and season prediction column a few months ago that if the Nittany Lions were able to get out to a 5-0 start as they were expected to, they would have a chance to propel themselves into the Big Ten championship picture with a win at Iowa.

The success or demise of the 2019 season truly lies with tonight’s game against the Hawkeyes. A win could give Penn State the confidence it needs to play well in its next two games against Michigan and Michigan State and a loss could very well end its Big Ten championship hopes as well as any aspirations of getting into the College Football Playoff. Basically, Penn State’s whole season hinges on whether or not it can take care of business in Iowa City.

“Obviously going into Kinnick Stadium is going to be a challenge. We look forward to being able to wave to the children and the Children’s Hospital, one of the most special traditions in all of college football,” said Penn State head coach James Franklin. “We also know how successful that they have been playing in these type of games: Ohio State, No. 3; Nebraska, No. 17; Michigan, No. 2; Michigan, No. 15; Michigan State, No. 5. We know how successful they have been in these types of games.”

First, without getting into any of the actual match-ups, let’s talk about the challenging atmosphere that the Nittany Lions will face going into what is always a chaotic Kinnick Stadium during a night game. The crowd will be into it, the Hawkeyes will be pumped up and historically under James Franklin Penn State has not been good on the road against ranked opponents.

However, Penn State has won five in a row against Iowa, including the last two games in Kinnick. The atmosphere will be challenging, yes, but all the hysteria this week in the media with this being a trap game or a definite loss for Penn State because it’s a young football team in my humble opinion is a little over the top.

I especially think that, because I simply believe that the Nittany Lions are the more talented team. Team speed is the name of the game in college football and right now Penn State has plenty of it. That speed has been notably evident on the defensive side of the ball where the Nittany Lions lead the country with five sacks per game and they also lead the country with 10.4 tackles per loss per game. Defensive ends Yetur Gross Matos (5.5) and Shaka Toney (5.0) have combined for 10.5 sacks on the season and helped Penn State tally 10 sacks last week against Purdue. The Nittany Lions pass rush is for real and Iowa quarterback Nate Stanley is your prototypical pro style quarterback with not much mobility, meaning if Penn State can get pressure on him it could spell tons of trouble for the Hawkeyes. Iowa struggled with the Michigan pass rush last week, giving up eight sacks and 13 tackles for loss.

The Iowa offense will try and combat the Penn State speed on defense by running the football, which has been its bread and butter during the Kirk Ferentz era. The Hawkeyes love to pound the football and then set you up with the play action game, which they’ve been able to do quite successfully this season. Stanley has been good in his career and he’s been good this season, throwing for 1,225 yards, with eight touchdowns and three interceptions – all three of his interceptions came against Michigan last week. A good indicator of being able to run the football and move the sticks in the play action passing game is time of possession in which Iowa is second in the country in that category.

However, the Nittany Lions have been dominant against the run, giving up just 50.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks third in the country. The Nittany Lions run defense was on display once again last week as they held the Boilermakers to -19 yards rushing. The Hawkeyes are averaging 174.2 rushing yards per game.

As you can tell, I think the Penn State defense is going to perform at high level tonight, so that brings us to the offense. The play of the Nittany Lions offense, I believe will decide this football game and they have put up some impressive numbers this season. Penn State ranks fifth in the country in scoring offense at 47 points per game and 12th in the country in total offense with 499.6 yards per game. Quarterback Sean Clifford has been very good, leading a passing attack that ranks in the top 20 in the country and leads the Big Ten with 305.6 yards per game. The running game has been good as well with a four-man rotation, totaling 194 yards rushing per game.

But the Nittany Lions offense will be facing their toughest challenge yet in an Iowa defense that ranks third in the country in scoring defense (8.8) and fifth in the country in total defense. The Hawkeyes have one of the best defensive end prospects in the country in AJ Epenesa and a host of other solid pass rushers and a secondary that is always well respected. It’s fair to say we’ll all know where Sean Clifford stands in his maturation process after this one.

Las Vegas has Penn State as a three-point favorite.

The key, like I mentioned above will be Clifford and the offense. After jumping out to a 28-7 lead at the half last week against Purdue the PSU offense stalled, scoring just seven points in the second half. That can’t happen this week and I don’t think it will. Penn State’s speed on offense I think will give Iowa trouble on the outside with KJ Hamler and Jahan Dotson, leaving some room for heralded tight end Pat Freiermuth to operate in the middle.

I think finally, you’re going to see a heavy dose of No. 21 true freshman Noah Cain at running back. Cain has proven time and again this season that he has the ability to consistently get positive runs and he broke out last week with 12 carries for 105 yards and a score. Look for Clifford to come up with a few explosive plays in the passing game, coupled with Cain’s steady running style to help the offense have a successful day.

Lastly, turnovers are big in a game like this, and I believe the Penn State pressure will create a few. The Nittany Lions secondary is talented and if Stanley is forced from his comfort zone early, I could see an early turnover giving the Nittany Lions momentum.

My pick is Penn State 27, Iowa 13.