BLOOMINGTON, Ind. - This has been a big autumn for the improbable.

First, the Chicago Cubs overcame history to win the World Series.Then, Donald Trump whipped the pollsters to claim the presidency.Now, thanks to the rankings-shaking upset that happened in Iowa City on Saturday night, Penn State is closer than ever to taking conventional wisdom down, too.With Iowa's improbable 14-13 win over No. 4 Michigan, Penn State got set up for exactly what it needed to make a run at the Big Ten Championship Game, which will be held Dec. 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis: A clear path to finishing ahead of the Wolverines in the East Division.Thanks to their 45-31 win over Indiana on Saturday, the No. 9 Nittany Lions, ranked No. 10 in the College Football Playoff rankings, are now in a three-way tie atop one of the nation's most competitive divisions, sharing 6-1 conference records with Michigan and No. 2 Ohio State.Had these programs remained in a three-way tie heading into the season's final week, tiebreakers - namely, their inferior overall record - would essentially have eliminated Penn State from title game consideration. The three-way tie, however, just became the most unlikely of scenarios for these three teams.This much should be made clear: Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines control their own destiny. Beat Indiana and Ohio State, and they are heading to Indianapolis without muss or fuss.The Hawkeyes pulling the upset over Michigan, though, at least provided Penn State an avenue to finish play Nov. 26 in a two-way race with either the Wolverines or Buckeyes, since those two teams face off in their annual blood war in Columbus.Scenarios from there become rather simple:• If Penn State wins its next two games - at Rutgers on Saturday and Nov. 26 against Michigan State in Beaver Stadium - it eliminates Ohio State from the title game by virtue of its thrilling, 24-21 win over the Buckeyes on Oct. 22.• If the Nittany Lions win out and Ohio State beats Michigan, what seemed unthinkable when September ended happens: The team that started 2-2, suffered a heartbreaking loss at Pittsburgh on Sept. 3, followed by a lopsided 49-10 loss to Michigan two weeks later, will play for the Big Ten title. And, maybe even more, depending on the will of the College Football Playoff committee. Do you believe in unlikelihoods?NITTANY NOTES ... Starting holder and reserve kicker Chris Gulla didn't make the trip to Bloomington due to a violation of team rules. Third-string quarterback Billy Fessler filled in well, as kicker Tyler Davis drilled six extra points and a 39-yard field goal without incident ... QB Trace McSorley has thrown touchdown passes in 11 consecutive games, and he has a rushing and passing touchdown in five of his last six ... Penn State won its sixth consecutive Big Ten game. It hasn't posted that many conference wins in a row in the same season since the program's legendary 1994 team went 8-0 in the conference. Penn State can match the program record for conference victories if it wins its next two games.