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On the decline

Population in Carbon, Monroe and Schuylkill counties is on the decline, according to a recent report from the Pennsylvania State Data Center.

From April 2010 to July 2014, Monroe County ranked third in the state with a decline of 3,528 residents and Schuylkill County had the fifth largest decrease at 2,492 residents. Fayette County, in southwestern Pennsylvania, was sandwiched between with a loss of 2,521 people.The drop in Carbon County was only 1.2 percent, as totals went 65,250 to 64,441 residents."Monroe is one of the counties that really pop out because they had been trending up with population growth," said John Maurer, of the Pennsylvania State Data Center. "We rarely see numbers completely turn on their head like we have with Monroe and Pike counties. I think there are a lot of things that play a factor, but a lot of people don't want to make that 90-minute commute to New York or northern New Jersey anymore."Carbon, Schuylkill and Monroe certainly are not in the minority.Overall, 42 counties experienced population loss, according to the data."This decline is consistent with declines in school enrollment, drastically reduced housing construction and a large number of foreclosures," according to Monroe County's comprehensive plan update issued in December. "These factors taken together support the projections."Schuylkill County presents a slightly different situation, Maurer said. "They had not been going in a positive direction so this data shows a continuation of a decline. Carbon had slight growth in the past, but their drop may also be affected by the age of their population."According to statistics from the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, Carbon County's largest segment of residents falls between 50 and 64 years old.Lehigh County was in the top five counties moving in a positive direction, gaining 8,197 residents over the four-year period.Population estimates were calculated by the U.S. Census Bureau using administrative records to estimate components of population change, such as births, deaths, domestic and international migration.There were an estimated 604,903 births in Pennsylvania compared to 539,878 deaths.The fastest growing county is Cumberland, with a 3.5 percent jump from 235,408 to 243,762 residents.Monroe County, which in previous decades experienced large population gains because of high migration rates from neighboring states, has lost 3,752 residents to out-migration. That was the second largest decline due to migration in the state."This slowing of population increases will likely not last, but the growth experienced throughout the 1990s and 2000s is not likely to be repeated," Monroe's planning commission states in its comprehensive plan."This pause is therefore an excellent time to redefine the economic goals of the county, and focusing on residential growth should no longer overshadow commercial, industrial, and other economic sector growth."The recent release is the fifth county-level population estimates release from the U.S. Census Bureau's population estimates division this decade.In May, total population estimates for subcounty areas (municipalities) will be released, along with housing unit estimates for the state and counties. In June, the Census Bureau is set to release 2014 county-level age, sex, race and ethnicity estimates.