Is it progress or just more of the same?

That’s the big question surrounding the latest effort at reforming the property tax system in Pennsylvania.

The property tax debate has raged on so long, few can even remember when it really began in the first place. Ideas have been lined up and ideas have been knocked down. Almost everyone can agree some type of change needs to happen, but there has been little consensus on what that change will look like.

Complete property tax elimination efforts have failed, although some narrowly, to get to the governor’s desk. One of the strongest advocates for change, state Rep. David Argall of Schuylkill County, is set to try again in 2020, but instead of working on a plan one-by-one, he and fellow legislators unveiled five plans last week for the House and Senate to kick around.

Most would bring only partial property tax relief while raising the income tax and sales tax. Argall stated that he still favors the sole option that would fully eliminate property taxes, but the reality of that gaining traction on both of the sides of the aisle is slim, hence why other choices were offered.

Those who have opposed complete property tax elimination all have their reasons. Those in the business offices of school districts across the state seem to be grinding their teeth the most when the topic comes up. Property taxes are a sure thing. They’re always going to be there, and the men and women doing school district budgets know that. If you need more, the option is there to get more. Until the Legislature bites the bullet and puts a new plan in place, there will be uncertainty over whether that money can actually be replaced through increased sales and income tax. That point is driven home by Mark DiRocco, executive director of Pennsylvania Association of School Administrators, who called for “stabilization,” and wondered what will happen in years when those taxes come in lower than projected. Will staffing numbers fluctuate from year to year based on how much stuff people buy? These are the questions those who feel more comfortable ask to be answered.

If we take a look into the crystal ball, and use the past as an indicator, I would call complete property tax elimination a long shot, at least at the beginning. A more likely scenario would be legislators agreeing on reducing up to half of a property owner’s tax bill, with increased sales and income taxes filling the gap. It would be baby steps, but is likely the only way progress is made. Should it work, a complete shift could be in the future.

It will soon be time to see what 2020 has in store.