For the first time in its last three games, Penn State took a lead into the fourth quarter and was able to hang on for a victory. Still, it seemed like the Nittany Lions did everything they possibly could to give away a 12-point lead that they possessed late against host Indiana.

Leading by 12 with 3:50 remaining is when it looked the wheels could once again fall off for a third straight game. It’s a feeling that has now come over most Penn State faithful during the fourth quarter, it’s a feeling that no lead is safe and that anything can happen to derail a possible Nittany Lions triumph. Last Saturday, anything almost did happen.

Poor clock management down the stretch on an important Penn State possession after a key interception by Nick Scott with 4:30 remaining ran just 24 seconds off the clock. The Hoosiers received the ball down two scores with plenty of time remaining and made the Nittany Lions pay, scoring on a 21-yard touchdown pass, bringing Indiana within five points with just under a minute left in the game.

Quickly, back to the previous Penn State possession. Just 24 seconds were run off the clock because the Nittany Lions’ coaching staff decided to go with three passing plays to gain a first down. Penn State head coach James Franklin’s explanation of why they decided to pass rather than run and chew up clock, while making Indiana use its timeouts was to be aggressive. He noted that when they tried to run in this type of situation against Michigan State that they weren’t successful, so they decided to go in a different direction, but unfortunately it didn’t work out.

I have always been a big supporter of James Franklin and his coaching ability. This season, I have received a lot of feedback from people who read this column that Franklin is to blame for the issues in 2018, while I have argued that some of Penn State’s inexperienced and sometimes experienced players just aren’t making game-winning plays late in games. The almost-crushing collapse that occurred last Saturday, I can admit I have no idea why any of the Penn State coaches would pass the ball in that situation. I don’t have the football mind of James Franklin, I know that, but sometimes the simplest answer is just the simplest answer. In that situation you must simply run the football.

I said this last week and I think what this all comes down to is that killer instinct characteristic Penn State is currently lacking. You have to be able to trust the big boys up front to be able grind out first down yardage in late-game situations with the lead, and right now that trust doesn’t seem to be there, which deservingly probably shouldn’t be there. Since Penn State has been on its successful run over the past two seasons, it has struggled to gain rushing yardage when it absolutely had to. Meaning, when the defense knew the Nittany Lions were going to run the football.

OK, so back to the actual game last week. After the Indiana score they were able to then recover an onside kick after Penn State successfully received an onside kick prior, but that was called off when Franklin called a timeout for an alignment issue the coaches saw. Not a big deal in my opinion, but it gave Indiana another attempt and Nick Scott had a clear shot at the ball and just mishandled it, giving Indiana a chance to win the game with 48 seconds left at its own 42-yard line.

In the end, the Nittany Lions defense held and everything worked out, but as you can see, Penn State is still not over the hump yet. It still needs to find that next gear to finish out a game convincingly and without any doubt.

This week, Penn State (5-2, 2-2) starts a gauntlet of a schedule that will see it face three consecutive ranked opponents when Iowa comes to Beaver Stadium (3:30 ET, ESPN). The Hawkeyes are ranked No. 18 in the country and are coming off a 23-0 victory over Maryland.

I don’t think I’m exaggerating here when I say this is a must-win game for the Nittany Lions. In fact, every game from here on out is. A three-loss season would be viewed by most, including myself, as a disappointment.

Penn State will be facing off with a very physical Hawkeyes (6-1, 3-1) squad and it starts as usual on defensive side of the ball. Iowa ranks third in the country in yards allowed (258.1 yards-per-game) and fifth in points allowed at 14.1 points per game. Running the football won’t be easy as the Hawkeyes are giving up just 79.6 yards per game on the ground, but they did give up 210 yards rushing to Wisconsin in their lone loss of the season. Penn State, which ranks second in the Big Ten in rushing with 240.7 yards per game, was able to move the ball effectively on the ground against a top rushing defense in Michigan State two weeks ago. I think Penn State will be just fine running the football with Miles Sanders and Trace McSorley.

For Penn State to come away with a win in this one it will need to be more explosive in the passing game. The Nittany Lions’ receivers other than KJ Hamler have been lackluster this season. A breakout game will be needed for McSorley, who is averaging just under 210 passing yards per game.

Las Vegas has Penn State as a six-point favorite.

I think this game will be tight, but I think the difference will be Penn State’s pressure. I feel like the Nittany Lions defensive end unit is really starting to catch fire. I think the Penn State “D” gets to Hawkeyes’ quarterback Nathan Stanley a few times on the day and forces him into a few turnovers.

Look for the Nittany Lions to play a more complete game this week. I think you’ll see some more sustained drives with the run game, and I’ll be looking for that passing game to finally break out.

My pick is Penn State 38, Iowa 31.