Run defense will be key for Nittany Lions
If there's one thing that is certain about Penn State's clash (Noon, ET, ESPNU) today with Army, it's that field conditions aren't going to be exactly great. State College has been pounded by heavy rains all week and there is a 90 percent chance of rain today and throughout the afternoon.
The status of the weather is something that is out of the Nittany Lions' head coach James Franklin's hands and is obviously something that he can't control. However, something that has been in Franklin and defensive coordinator Bob Shoop's control over the past week has been the preparation for Army. This week the Nittany Lions will face the always challenging Black Knight's triple option attack, which is no easy scheme to defend.Slippery and possibly muddy conditions won't help the matter either as the weather will cater to the ground and pound style that the triple option offers up. Normally, I would say that a team that will run the ball close to 50 times a game and only throw the ball around nine times per contest would feed right into the strength of the Penn State defense. However, with the wet conditions it might be a little tougher for the PSU defensive front and linebackers to read their keys and plug up holes.It certainly won't be an easy task, but Penn State's success defensively will obviously start up front. All Big 10 hopefuls in defensive tackles Austin Johnson and Anthony Zettel seem like they were sculpted and molded to stop this type of offense. Defensive ends Carl Nassib and Garrett Sickels are also very important and it's important for them to stay in their lanes and not over pursue when attacking the triple option.Depth is also vital when defending the triple option and fortunately for Penn State that is something they have a lot of at the defensive line position. Antoine White, Tarow Barney, Torrence Brown, Curtis Cothran, and Parker Cothren will almost certainly all see action and a top notch performance from each and every one of them will be needed.A lot of Penn State's defensive success has come this season when it's been able to get pressure on the quarterback. The Nittany Lions lead the FBS in total team sacks with 18, while Nassib leads the country with seven sacks. They won't have much of an opportunity to rush the QB today, because of Army's lopsided rush to pass ratio, so it will be key for the PSU "D" to be very sound in the tackling department and limit the Black Knights first down opportunities."I think the triple option puts stress on everybody," said Franklin. "It always does, not just because of the scheme that they run, but also the style of play and the fact that you only see it maybe once every couple of years and things like that. It also think it aligns really well with the type of kids that they have."Army is averaging just over 200 yards per game on the ground and rushed for 500 yards a week ago against Eastern Michigan. Penn State is surrendering just 90.5 yards per game on the ground.On Penn State's official depth chart they released this week, running backs Akeel Lynch and Saquon Barkley are still listed as the No.1 and No.2 tailbacks. Is that a sign that both could play on Saturday or is just some gamesmanship from Franklin? Only time will tell, but my guess would be that they don't suit up.Franklin has been on the record this week, saying that Mark Allen and Nick Scott as well as Johnathan Thomas are all running backs that will be evaluated in the game against Army. It's hard to imagine four running backs seeing time against the Black Knights unless the game is well in hand by either team in the fourth quarter. The weather once again will factor in here as you don't want to send a running back out there that isn't at full strength on a field that is soaking wet.I know it seems like this is a subject we talk about week in and week out, but the offensive line must do a more than exceptional job of creating running lanes this week. If Lynch and Barkley do not play, it will instantly put the offense in a precarious situation. The offense struggled mightily a week ago against San Diego State when they couldn't get anything going in the run game in the second half. It could be much of the same this week if the "O-line" doesn't play well.Both Nick Scott and Mark Allen are speedy backs, but need a decent hole to break loose. If those holes are not there and Christian Hackenberg and the passing game can't get anything going it could be a scary day for Penn State fans.Hackenberg and the passing game made some strides last week as the junior threw for 296 yards and three scores. The offense also took some shots downfield, which could be tough to replicate today due to the impending weather. However, a few deep balls is sometimes all it takes to break a game open and as I've mentioned in the past, I think the PSU receivers have the ability to get open downfield.Army allows 261 yards passing per game, so if "Hack" can withstand the elements, he can have a successful afternoon.Las Vegas has Penn State pegged as a 27 point favorite. Because of the impending weather and the expected poor field conditions, I don't think the Lions cover.My prediction is Penn State 35, Army 10.