Penn State enters the week 0-4 in Big Ten play and coming off a bye, so the expectation among Nittany Lions fans is straightforward: show improvement, and turn that progress into a win.

There are plenty of reasons for the struggles this season. Some point to athletic director Pat Kraft for hiring a coach late in the cycle. Others look at Matt Campbell’s conservative approach and his belief that the talent he brought from Iowa State would translate seamlessly. And, of course, some of the responsibility falls on the players — most notably quarterback Rocco Becht, whose turnovers have directly contributed to multiple PSU losses.

There’s no shortage of blame to go around, but this week should be about returning to fundamental, assignment‑driven football. The formula is simple: run the ball effectively and protect the football. That alone would be meaningful progress.

But the first part won’t come easily. The interior of the offensive line has looked overmatched, and seven games in, no running back has stepped up to claim the starting role. The run game has lacked both explosiveness and consistency — and that starts up front.

We’ll find out quickly whether the Nittany Lions made good use of their bye week when Purdue comes to Beaver Stadium this afternoon (4:15 p.m. ET. BTN). Like Penn State, the Boilermakers have had an up‑and‑down season, but they do have a couple of Big Ten wins under their belt, including victories over Illinois and Minnesota.

Purdue enters this matchup coming off a loss to Washington in which they surrendered 38 points and 302 passing yards. Despite forcing three interceptions in the game, the Boilermakers once again showed how vulnerable they can be against the pass. Coach Campbell has been very clear in recent media sessions that he hasn’t considered benching Rocco Becht in favor of backup quarterback Alex Manske. Campbell continues to trust Becht, even with the turnover issues that have popped up this season.

If you’re inclined to look at things through a glass‑half‑full lens, this week presents a prime opportunity for Becht to reset. Quite frankly, he should be able to do just that — Purdue ranks 118th nationally in pass defense, allowing 251.6 yards per game through the air.

The Boilermakers rushing defense hasn’t been very good this season, either. I’ve been waiting for a breakout game from the PSU rushing attack since they entered the Big Ten slate, but it has yet to occur. Again, as I’ve been saying I’d like to see a lot more James Peoples and Quinton Martin Jr. at running back and a lot less of Carson Hansen.

On the defensive side of the ball, the front seven needs to take a big step forward if the Nittany Lions hope to finish the back half of their season strong. Kooper Ebel has struggled at middle linebacker, and his backup, Alex Tatsch, is out for the year with an injury. Help is on the way, though: Marcus Neal is shifting from safety to linebacker, and Cam Smith is expected to return this week after missing several games.

Entering the season, Penn State’s defensive line was already a major question mark. Coach Campbell and defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s transfer-portal efforts to strengthen the interior haven’t produced the results they hoped for, and the edge rushers have struggled to generate consistent pressure. Losing Max Granville for the season has only added to the challenges in the pass-rush department.

Penn State will need to find a way to pressure Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne this afternoon if it wants to secure its first Big Ten win. Browne has thrown for 1,822 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions and leads a Boilermakers offense that ranks fourth in the Big Ten and 21st nationally with 280.7 passing yards per game.

On a more positive note, Penn State has been strong against the pass this season, allowing just 141.3 yards per game — the best mark in the Big Ten and the fourth-best in the country. Cornerback Audavion Collins has been a standout, ranking ninth nationally with eight pass breakups. He has allowed only four completions all season, the fewest among cornerbacks with at least 150 coverage snaps.

Las Vegas has Penn State as a 10-point favorite over Purdue.

This matchup has the feel of a game where the quarterback who plays cleaner and avoids mistakes will ultimately decide the outcome. Penn State does have some injury concerns, with Chase Sowell listed as questionable heading into the weekend, though I expect he’ll suit up. Sowell has been solid this season, catching 34 passes for 510 yards and three touchdowns. Standout receiver Koby Howard returned to practice this week, but it would be surprising to see him back in action just yet — he still appears to be about a week away.

Penn State badly needs a win, and I think you’ll see the team play with a greater sense of urgency and discipline. One thing it cannot afford to do, however, is fall back into a conservative defensive approach. The Nittany Lions can’t rush only three and sit in zone coverage the way they did against USC. Giving Ryan Browne time in the pocket is simply not a recipe for success.

My pick is: Penn State 34, Purdue 31.