What a difference a year makes.

Last season in my annual Nittany Lions’ schedule breakdown, I talked about the pressure facing the 2025 Penn State team and whether they could finally get over the hump. Ranked No. 2 in the preseason AP Poll, the Lions carried their highest expectations since 1999.

But as we all know, things didn’t quite go as planned. Penn State finished 7–6, and the administration decided to move on from longtime head coach James Franklin. So, while the expectations for the 2026 squad aren’t nearly as pressure-packed as they were a year ago, make no mistake — there’s still plenty of anticipation surrounding new head coach Matt Campbell and this squad. Campbell brought in 39 players from the transfer portal to State College, with 24 of them coming from his former team in Iowa State. Most notably, Campbell brought over former Cyclone signal caller Rocco Becht, who is currently the winningest active quarterback in college football with 26 career wins.

I broke down Penn State’s depth chart just a few weeks ago and the consensus from not just me, but people way more qualified than me is that this is still a talented football team. Combine that with a schedule that, at least on paper, looks very manageable, and Campbell’s first year in Happy Valley could shape up to be a successful one. For the record, I’m a big believer in Matt Campbell. I think his old school approach is going to do wonders for the on-field performance for the Nittany Lions.

So, let’s dive right into Penn State’s 2026 slate. The Nittany Lions, ranked No. 18 in the preseason AP Poll, kick off their season in one week when they host Marshall.

Week 1

Sept. 5 - vs. Marshall

Penn State is presently a 24.5-point favorite over the Thundering Herd. Marshall finished 5-7 last season and the defense really struggled.

Prediction: Penn State 38, Marshall 10.

Week 2

Sept. 12 - at Temple

The Owls will be improved after a 5-7 season a year ago, but Penn State should dominate the game in the trenches.

Prediction: Penn State 42, Temple 14.

Week 3

Sept. 19 - vs. Buffalo

Buffalo went 5-7 last season and the offense wasn’t very good, and this season it doesn’t look like it has a ton of playmakers either.

Prediction: Penn State 37, Buffalo 6.

Week 4

Sept. 26 - vs. Wisconsin

The Badgers just haven’t been as good of late, and they went 4-8 last season. Wisconsin had one of the worst offenses in the country a year ago. They did bring in reinforcements, including transfer dual-threat quarterback Colton Joseph Jr. who had a good career at Old Dominion, but the Badgers still lack firepower.

Prediction: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 14.

Week 5

Oct. 2 (Friday) - at Northwestern

I think the Wildcats have some nice pieces, and they brought in talented dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles from Michigan State. This is also the game where they will unveil their new $800 million stadium, so the place will be rocking. But there are a lot of questions up front on both sides of the ball.

Prediction: Penn State 27, Northwestern 14.

Week 6

Oct. 10 - vs. USC

Penn State will host the No. 14 ranked Trojans in a “whiteout,” and it will be Campbell’s first chance to show Nittany Lions’ faithful that he and his staff can win a big game. Jayden Maiava is slated to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country, but I think Penn State’s slight edge in the trenches and the atmosphere paired with the veteran influence of Becht will be just enough for Campbell and the Nittany Lions to get the win.

Prediction: Penn State 34, USC 31.

Week 7

Oct. 17 - at Michigan

No. 16 ranked Michigan leads the all-time series against PSU 17-10. It’s one of those teams the Nittany Lions have always struggled with, especially on the road. Coming off an emotional win, I think Penn State drops this one to the Wolverines.

Prediction: Michigan 24, Penn State 21.

Week 8

BYE

Week 9

Oct. 31 - vs. Purdue

Purdue was 2-10 last season, and it had trouble both running the football and stopping the run. The Boilermakers also have a lot of question marks in the trenches.

Prediction: Penn State 41, Purdue 14.

Week 10

Nov. 7 - at Washington

This will be a tough road test for Campbell and the Nittany Lions. Washington has some playmakers, and Husky Stadium is not an easy place to win, but this is another team that I think will struggle to run the ball this season and I believe to beat PSU, you’re going to need to be able to move the chains in the run game.

Prediction: Penn State 24, Washington 17.

Week 11

Nov. 14 - vs. Minnesota

Minnesota is always solid and always plays Penn State tough. But when you’re the more talented team and you’re at home, you should always come away with the “W.” And that’s what I think happens in this game.

Prediction: Penn State 33, Minnesota 21.

Week 12

Nov. 21 - vs. Rutgers

Rutgers has some big-time playmakers in running back Antwan Raymond and wide receiver KJ Duff. But the offensive line hasn’t been consistent, and the Scarlet Knights’ pass rush hasn’t been great either. To win on the road in a tough environment, those are two bullets you definitely need in the chamber.

Prediction: Penn State 38, Rutgers 20.

Week 13

Nov. 28 - at Maryland

Maryland finished the season losing eight straight games last year. Penn State will need to keep Malik Washington in check, but again this is a team that doesn’t run the ball very well, and the Terrapins defense was terrible a season ago.

Prediction: Penn State 45, Maryland 21.

So, after running the numbers, I’ve got the Nittany Lions finishing 11–1 and earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. I know that’s going to raise some eyebrows — just like my prediction of a 12–0 season did last year, but the deeper I dive into this team, the more confident I feel about this prediction.

Penn State has proven veterans at every key position except defensive end, and from everything coming out of camp, that group is getting better each day. On top of that, I really like the way Matt Campbell runs a program, and I think he’s an exceptional in-game coach.

You’re going to see a prepared, disciplined, and fundamentally sound team every single week, and when you couple that approach with real talent, good things usually follow.