Prices for centerpiece turkeys are up, but overall consumers are likely to see a mixed bag of price increases and decreases as they shop for traditional Thanksgiving holiday meals.

While recent price trends for whole turkeys were much higher than last year, the cost of other traditional fare like hams and potatoes, as well as baking items like eggs and butter, were lower, said David Anderson, Ph.D., Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station.

Anderson said overall prices and seasonal specials indicate opportunities for shoppers to find value as the holiday approaches.

“You may see higher prices on some items, but remember that grocery stores always have a strategy for Thanksgiving,” he said. “Typically, it’s built around a special feature on the turkey to get people into the store, and I suspect this year will be no different.”

Turkey production down, prices up

Anderson said wholesale prices for whole turkeys were $1.68 per pound compared with 99 cents per pound this time last year, a 70% increase.

Two factors — the resurgence of highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI, and lower overall turkey production — have reduced supplies that have triggered higher prices.

Turkey and egg production were hit hardest during previous outbreaks of the disease, and turkey supplies are still recovering from losses that continued into late spring. Commercially raised turkey hens take 15-18 weeks to reach maturity, while larger toms take 20 weeks or more to reach harvest weights.

“Turkey production takes time, and so even the recovery from avian flu in the spring is impacting supplies,” Anderson said. “The buildup on whole turkeys for Thanksgiving happens throughout the year as birds are held back to meet that holiday demand.”

He said turkey production is down more than 8% year over year as the industry continues to grapple with low prices, increased input and labor costs, and shifting consumer demand.

Aside from whole birds for the holiday season, most turkey ends up as deli meats in grocery stores and sandwich shops.

While Americans are eating double the amount of turkey they did in 1970, the 14.8 pounds per person consumed in 2023 is 18% lower than the 18.1 pounds per capita consumed in 1996.

Finding fewer specials, so far

Turkey production dipped more than 8%, and the recent resurgence of avian flu has led to tighter supplies of whole birds and higher prices for Thanksgiving.

Many grocers set contracts with turkey wholesalers long before the holiday to lock in prices and the number of birds to meet expected demand, Anderson said. This can present opportunities for grocers to offer special prices or buying incentives to shoppers.

The retail outlet survey find grocers have been offering fewer specials compared to last year, Anderson said. Prices may be lower in some cases, but there are fewer items being featured with special prices.

He said it would be difficult to speculate on what triggered the retail trend, but he’s curious to see if special offers trend upward in the next few weeks.

Anderson suggests shopping early for turkeys if size and brand are a consideration but that shoppers could find deals on centerpiece birds by shopping late as well.

“Even at the higher price, turkeys always seem like a good value relative to other meats when you consider leftovers and secondary meals that we get out of them,” he said. “As an economist we tend to focus on price, but in this case, I have to consider value.”

Mixed bag of prices on other items

Meanwhile, shoppers are also likely to find lower prices on some items like baking pumpkins, potatoes, milk and eggs, and higher prices on other meats like hams and steaks.

Eggs were $1.60 per large dozen compared with $3.30 for the same dozen last year, a 51.5% decline, Anderson said.

Dairy products like milk, butter and cheddar cheese have also experienced a sharp price decline because of higher production.

The U.S. dairy herd hit its highest number since the 1990s, and the nation’s 9.5 million milk cows are producing 28 pounds more milk per cow per year than they did last year.

On the other hand, potatoes like russets for baking and yellow gold for mashed potatoes have gone up slightly, Anderson said.

Russets were 98 cents per pound compared with 84 cents per pound last year, while yellow gold potatoes were 87 cents per pound compared with 74 cents last year.

Prices on another popular holiday item, cranberries, were also up: $2.45 per 12-ounce bag versus $2.37 last year, Anderson said.

At the retail level, prices for sliced boneless hams were a relatively static $5.54 per pound compared with $5.53 per pound last year. The cost of spiral sliced hams was up: $3.17 per pound compared with $2.88 per pound last year.

“I think consumers are feeling the pressure at grocery stores with higher prices overall,” Anderson said. “But I also think there will be opportunities to find deals on those go-to items we buy to create traditional Thanksgiving Day meals.”