I’ll take “overrating the Penn State football team” for 500, please. I won’t deny it — I completely misread this roster.

My preseason prediction for the Nittany Lions is already in the trash after the beating they took in Evanston last Friday night. I was encouraged by head coach Matt Campbell’s comments after the Wisconsin loss, when he said the team’s effort and attitude were still where they needed to be. But the way Northwestern physically dominated them tells a very different story — one that simply isn’t acceptable anywhere, let alone at Penn State.

Now, shifting the focus to Coach Campbell himself. Here’s where I stand, trying to look at the situation with some common sense. Campbell was hired late in the cycle and had to build a roster on the fly. Many players Penn State might have kept were already gone before he arrived, forcing him to pull what he could from the top of Iowa State’s roster just to fill holes.

These things take time to come together, but many writers — me included — assumed Campbell would snap his fingers and have Penn State immediately contending for a College Football Playoff spot. I was wrong. I should’ve been more realistic about how long it takes to install new schemes and get a new group of players to mesh. And while several of his newcomers succeeded in the Big 12, that doesn’t guarantee the same results in the Big Ten. I didn’t overlook that entirely — but I should’ve taken a more patient, wait and see approach.

Bottom line: I think Coach Campbell is a very good football coach, and in the long run, he’ll have the Nittany Lions competing at a high level again. But right now, I just want to see this team play a more physical, high effort brand of football — the kind that gives them a real chance to stack a few more wins this season.

Penn State (3-2) will try to bounce back from its 34–13 loss to Northwestern tonight as USC (No. 19, 5-1) comes to Beaver Stadium for a “white out” (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC). The Wildcats controlled the line of scrimmage last week, rushing for 413 yards and four touchdowns at more than seven yards per carry. That must change immediately. Campbell and defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn need to make serious adjustments, because missed alignments, blown assignments, and poor tackling cannot happen in the Big Ten — not unless you want a repeat of what happened in Evanston.

USC doesn’t run the ball much under head coach Lincoln Riley; the Trojans are a pass first offense with a dangerous aerial attack. They rank 12th in the nation at 311.7 passing yards per game. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is one of the more talented throwers in the country, and his numbers back it up: 1,744 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. The Trojans are banged up in the receiving corps, though. Corey Simms (178 yards) is out, while Trent Mosley (255 yards) and tight end Mark Bowman (204 yards) are both questionable.

As for what to expect from Penn State’s defense tonight — honestly, I don’t know. If they play anything like they did last week, it’ll be another lopsided loss. To slow down USC, they have to pressure Maiava and force the Trojans into third and long situations where the “white out” crowd can make an impact. Improving the run defense is also key after last week’s debacle. The goal should be to get stops early, so the crowd can get into the game.

On the season, the Nittany Lions’ secondary has held its own. They rank third in the nation in pass defense, allowing just 119.6 yards per game. That unit will need to be sharp again tonight for Penn State to have any chance of pulling off the upset.

Offensively, this team is in a bad way. There’s no identity, no rhythm, and no real sense of what it does well. The run game has been nonexistent, and Rocco Becht — a player I had complete confidence in heading into the season — looks like he’s lost his. Over the past two weeks, he has averaged just 178.5 passing yards with one touchdown, three interceptions, and a 52.4 percent completion rate.

A lot is going wrong right now, and it starts up front. The offensive line simply has to do a better job controlling the line of scrimmage. That won’t be easy, especially with Penn State still searching for a true lead back and USC allowing only 118.2 rushing yards per game. There should be opportunities for Becht and the passing attack if they execute — the Trojans give up 230.7 yards through the air — but the protection has to hold up.

Losing Koby Howard a few games ago really derailed the offense. His playmaking ability masked a number of issues that have now become impossible to ignore. Howard is expected back soon, but with the way the offense has been struggling in his absence, it isn’t soon enough. But again, everything circles back to the offensive line. If that group gets pushed around the same way it did last week, the result is going to look very familiar.

Las Vegas has Penn State as a 1.5-point favorite.

The Nittany Lions have to play better this week, right? After such a lifeless effort a week ago, it’s hard for me to believe that Coach Campbell can’t get something more out of this group after back-to-back losses. But I can’t in good conscious pick Penn State to win this game after the product it has put on the field over the past two weeks.

My pick is USC 27, Penn State 21.