Behind the Plate: Are analytics ruining MLB?
Baltimore’s Earl Weaver played for the long ball. Philly’s Gene Mauch used “little” or “small” ball to his advantage. New York’s Billy Martin and Seattle/Cincinnati’s Lou Pinella moved players around strategically to gain success.
That used to be baseball’s version of analytics, and there wasn’t much speculation about it. Most of it was done through prior experiences, and simply by a gut feeling.
Oakland’s Tony LaRussa further laid the groundwork when he began making an average of three or more pitching changes per game.
However, those all pale in comparison to today’s analytics. There is a rising theory that general managers are dictating lineups to the dugout based on statistics.
Are analytics ruining the game? Certain analytics can provide a hitter with a few more dollars based on their OPS (on base plus slugging), OBP (on-base percentage) or slugging percentage, adding to their bonuses for individual statistics or being a league leader or making an All-Star appearance.
Back in the day, players weren’t taken out of games or pitchers pulled because their numbers didn’t match up well against the upcoming opposition.
In this version of my Behind the Plate column, I will look at the state of analytics as well as look around the league in the early going. Also, I will review the career of a former Lehighton star.
What Did You Think? ... In a recent Times News Lehighton Sports Facebook poll, the question was posed on whether analytics is ruining the game.
Well, 68 percent of you believe it is, while shockingly, 29 percent didn’t care, and three percent believe it isn’t.
Check Your Numbers ... In the past, the most relative numbers were batting average and ERA. In the 1970s, managers began to use batting averages against pitchers on a regular basis, those that were available.
Today, a team’s best estimated hitter is hitting either second — Yankees’ Aaron Judge and the Mets’ Juan Soto — or third — Phillies Bryce’ Harper — and not in the traditional four hole.
Here are some forms that are commonly used by most teams. See if you can figure them out.
Platoon Splits (RvR/LvL): The most critical metric, identifying if a pitcher is more effective against right-handed or left-handed hitters;
6-4-3 charts: They provide defensive positioning for each hitter based on data;
Pitch Usage & Sequencing: Evaluates the pitcher’s preferred “comfort pitches” in specific counts (e.g., slider in a 2-2 count) to select batters who thrive against that pitch;
Expected Earned Run Average (ERA) & Statcast Data: Predicts performance by analyzing contact quality (hard-hit rate, exit velocity) rather than just past results;
Expected Run Value: It evaluates how effective a pitch is compared to the league average, helping to choose hitters who neutralize that pitcher’s best weapon; and
Simulation Modeling: It uses computer simulations to test various lineup combinations against a pitcher’s profile to project total runs.
All MLB teams are using them in some fashion, some more aggressively than others. Even though analytics have proven to be effective, they are not full-proof.
Best Laid Plans ... With baseball at its technology zenith, you would figure that team batting averages would be high, and strikeouts would be low.
It turns out that’s not the case.
Last season, only seven teams hit above .250, compared to 30 teams in 2005. In 2017, 20 teams were above the mark, and there haven’t been that many since then.
In 2005, only half of the teams struck out 1,000 times or more. Last year, no team struck out fewer than 1,077 times; 14 of them fanned more than 1,400 times. Seattle hitters struck out 1,625 times.
Bottom Line ... Analytics will continue to be a major part of the game. However, too often lineups are based on numbers instead of keeping a batter riding a hot streak in the lineup. The same can be said for pitchers who are pulled too early, especially if a starter is excelling. Too many starters are pulled after four or five innings on the standard 100-pitch limit.
In 2001, there were 197 complete games. Last season, there were 33.
Could you see Mike Schmidt or Steve Carlton being pulled from a game because their numbers didn’t fit the situation?
Quick Quiz ... Who was the Phillies player who played in the last game at Connie Mack Stadium and the first game at the Vet, as well as managed in the last game in Veterans Stadium and managed in the first game at Citizens Bank Park?
New Kids On The Block ... A handful of rookies made their successful MLB debuts Thursday.
Justin Crawford had two hits; Detroit’s Kevin McGonigle had four hits with an RBI; the Mets’ Carson Benge hit a solo homer; St. Louis’ J. J. Wetherholt had a homer and two RBIs; the White Sox’s Munetaka Murakami had a solo homer; and Cincinnati’s Sal Stewart had three hits.
Don’t Forget Your Wallet ... If you’re planning to attend a Dodgers’ game in LA this year, make sure you have a credit card or plenty of cash.
According to Bookies.com, the cost of a family of four who purchase tickets, drinks (alcohol more), hot dogs, and parking will cost in the range of $400.
The Dodgers have the highest ticket price at $78, and parking is $45 ($70 preferred).
For the same deal, the Phillies’ are expected to pass $250 dollars.
Lone Star Connections ... Over the years, there have been numerous players who have played for both the Phillies and Rangers. Here are five of them you may have forgotten that played in the Lone Star state: Oscar Gamble (Rangers 1979), Dallas Green (Washington Senators 1965), Dickie Noles (Rangers, 1984-85), Mitch Williams (Rangers 1985-86), and Marlon Byrd (2007-09).
Some New Bad-er? ... Ex-Phil Harrison Bader started in center field for the Giants Wednesday, and went 0-3 in his debut. Bader won the job, but the challenge for him will be if he can stay healthy. He was questionable with a hamstring issue before the opener.
Bader’s progress will be worth watching, especially with Crawford starting in center. It appears Bader took the Giants’ two-year offer — similar to the Phillies — to be a likely star.
Quick Quiz Answer ... Larry Bowa played in the last game at Connie Mack in 1970, the first game of the Vet in 1971, managed the last game at the Vet in 2003, and the first game at Citizens Bank in 2004.
Readers Write
Dear Jeff,
How will the Phillies disappoint fans this year? In the past, we had Joe Carter’s walkoff in 1993, Ryan Howard striking out with the bases loaded in the NLCS, a World Series no-hitter thrown against the Phillies, the Phillies’ bats going silent in the playoffs, and Orion Kerkering throwing the ball away.
The middle of the lineup also needs to produce — Harper, Bohm, Realmuto, and Garcia.
Melissa Hager
Lehighton
Scrapbook ... In each column, I will peel back the pages to review the career of a former standout from the area.
Ben Cordova was a four-sport athlete at Lehighton, playing soccer, basketball, baseball and football. He played soccer and baseball for four years.
On the diamond, Cordova had a 6-4 record with a 3.37 ERA in his senior year, as he helped lead the Indians to the District 11 Class 3 A title game. Palmerton edged Lehighton, 12-11, in a slugfest final. Cordova hit .250 his final year and was named the team MVP.
Cordova went on to play at Ithaca College, where he had a limited career. He did excel for Northern Valley in the Lehigh Valley Legion.
Diamond Digest ... In each column, I will look back at a former player, manager or game from our youth.
On April 7, 1986, the Phillies opened the season in Cincinnati, and suffered a 7-4 loss. It was a unique game in which neither starting pitcher recorded a strikeout.
Carlton was rocked for seven runs and nine hits over four innings, and walked two. Larry Andersen pitched a scoreless inning in relief, and Charles Hudson pitched the final three innings. Reds starter Mario Soto allowed four runs — one earned — and six hits over 5 2/3 innings and walked three. Ron Robinson picked up the save, as he issued just one hit over 3 1/3 innings.
Mike Schmidt hit a solo homer in the third inning, and he, Von Hayes and Steve Jeltz each had two hits. Eric Davis blasted a three-run homer in the second inning, and Dave Parker hit a solo shot in the fifth for Cincy.
The Phillies finished second that year with an 86-76 record under John Felske.
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