There’s been a lot of talk lately in the hallowed halls of Harrisburg about eliminating school property taxes.

On the surface, it sounds like a great idea. Finally, it’s a break for homeowners across the state — a fair and equitable solution for all.

Except the property owners in the Panther Valley School District.

The plan, proposed by Sen. Dawn Keefer, a Republican from the York County area, wipes out school property taxes, replacing them with a state income tax that rises from 3.07% to 4.95%, a sales tax that rises from 6% to 8%. The proposal would tax all income, except Social Security, Roth IRAs, military pensions or survivor benefits and pension contributions on which people have already paid taxes.

The plan requires landlords to reduce rent based on tax savings, removes a cap on school district reserves and creates a $500 million “school district emergency fund” as a lender of “last resort” for districts unable to balance their budget.

It would mandate that schools be fully funded at current levels, at the same time directing $300 million in additional new funding to Philadelphia schools in the first year to address infrastructure and deficiencies.

The great idea — essentially a shift in how the state gathers tax revenue — is starting to lose its shine. Let’s look a little deeper.

Moving forward, the state’s population is expected to shrink by 200,000 people over the next 10 years. That would cost billions in consumer spending and drive down sales tax revenues. With all those people gone, personal income tax revenues shrink, too.

The numbers aren’t abstract. They’ve been thrown around for a long time.

Panther Valley can’t afford to gamble on a shrinking state economy.

For now, PV relies on state funding, especially since the local tax base is so limited. Property values are low — averaging around $22,000 in the district.

Poverty is high and the district’s elderly population is well above the state average.

That means PV already depends on Harrisburg more than most districts.

Under the Keefer plan, that dependence becomes absolute when the district loses every dollar of its local taxing power.

Every roof repair, curriculum update or special education cost would spike. That’s not to mention emergency boiler repairs, pencils, erasers or textbooks.

It all hinges on whatever the state decides to send — whether or not it’s enough.

Sure, the district would be “held harmless” so there would be no immediate decrease in revenue or increase in tax liability during a shift in funding sources.

But there’s no guarantee, and the forecast shows the state with less revenue — not more — to work with.

That creates some instability for the local folks who’ll be paying the bills.

Among those folks are renters who make up a large portion of the school district’s households.

What are the chances of those renters seeing the benefit of any reduction in property taxes? The Keefer plan requires landlords to forward their tax savings, but, realistically, how would that mandate be enforced?

In the meantime, renters will still be stuck with higher sales and income taxes.

Then, there are seniors — not the ones in the latest graduating class, but those who’ve been paying the freight for a long time.

Panther Valley has one of the highest senior populations in the region, and many of them live on incomes that don’t increase as taxes rise.

Under the Keefer plan, “certain retirement income” — think 401(k) and similar accounts — would become taxable for the first time in the state.

In the last few years, seniors have moved into the state to take advantage of the tax break. Knowing about that brings elderly folks here to stretch their retirement dollars.

It didn’t appear to matter to Keefer, who said in a televised interview that older property owners already pay their taxes from their retirement accounts.

And did anyone ever think that taxing retirement might drive people away?

In Panther Valley, already struggling with a population that’s not growing by leaps and bounds, it could be another blow to empty school coffers.

Even homeowners who might benefit from a property tax cut might find themselves worse off in the long run.

Though some argue that property values would increase when taxes are eliminated, what good is it when the school district can’t benefit from the property taxes they would generate?

Those same rising property values and the higher prices they bring could make it harder for young families to buy homes in the area. Might that weaken the district’s future enrollment and financial outlook?

The questions keep on coming.

But the bottom line is that Panther Valley needs stable, predictable funding and the ability to respond to local needs.

The Keefer plan takes all that away by replacing a flawed but reliable revenue source with one that depends on the Capitol politicos and a potentially shrinking tax base.

Admittedly, we’re all for some type of tax relief, but the Keefer plan delivers risk.

And for a district that’s fighting to provide a fair and equitable education to its students, the risk is just too great.

ED SOCHA |

tneditor@tnonline.com

Ed Socha is a retired newspaper editor with more than 45 years’ experience in community journalism.

The foregoing opinions do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editorial Board or Times News LLC.