Can one regular season game really define a season? Does one regular season loss mean that the season is near over?

These are all questions that Penn State faithful were asking themselves this week as the No. 3-ranked Nittany Lions host No. 6-ranked Oregon tonight (7:30 ET, NBC) in Beaver Stadium.

The answer to those questions generally speaking is of course, no.

But to a fan of the Nittany Lions’ football program that has endured loss after loss after loss to top-ranked opponents, a loss to the Ducks could feel like it very well could define the season — and it absolutely could feel like the season is near over. And that feeling or overreaction comes from knowing that if PSU loses this game, then why would any supporter of PSU believe that it could beat No. 1-ranked Ohio State later on in the season in Columbus?

Two losses to top-ranked teams and potentially zero quality wins is not the scenario you want to be in when the College Football Playoff committee is evaluating your resume.

That is why in my humble opinion, Penn State’s match-up with Oregon this evening is its most important game it has ever played in the James Franklin era. This is the game where the Nittany Lions can turn the tide of uncertainty with a win, or if they lose, they could once again stir up a typhoon of judgement from fans and college football analysts alike that could destroy their national championship hopes.

It’s simple, if Penn State wants to stay on track and prove its doubters wrong, it cannot lose to Oregon tonight.

As always, I’ll start with the not-so-good news, and that is Oregon’s speed. It’s everywhere. It’s on offense, it’s on defense and it’s on special teams. And unlike the Nittany Lions, the Ducks have been in the hammer lane all season long decimating their opponents.

The Ducks closest game was a 34-14 win over Big Ten opponent Northwestern. In their other games, the Ducks defeated Montana State, Oklahoma State and Oregon State by an average of 48.6 points per game. Now, even though some of those teams have bigger names than Nevada, FIU and Villanova, it’s also fair to claim that all of those teams also aren’t very good. However, there is no denying the Ducks have looked more explosive than the Nittany Lions.

Which brings me to the Penn State offense.

First and foremost, the PSU offensive line needs to come to play. The false starts and assignment breakdowns cannot happen against the Oregon defensive front. Matayo Uiagalelei is a future first round draft pick and has been good, so far, this season with a stat line of three tackles for loss, three sacks, two pass breakups and two quarterback hits. Uiagalelei had 10.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss last season.

A’Mauri Washington and Bear Alexander are the big guys that will need to be contended with in the middle. The rest of the Oregon pass rush will come from the outside linebacker spots, specifically Teitum Tuioti (1.5 sacks). Bryce Boettcher leads the team in tackles from his linebacker spot with 27 total tackles. And in the secondary, the Ducks have playmakers as well led by Dillon Thieneman at safety.

I think it’s important early on for Nittany Lions offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to let it rip. For Penn State to win this game, Drew Allar is going to need to play with confidence and gain confidence as the games progresses. Allar needs to make the big throws on third down and in the red zone.

The run game will of course be important, but I think the passing game will open up the rushing attack in this one. It won’t be easy with Oregon giving up just 120 yards passing per game, albeit against teams that do not have the weapons the caliber of PSU. I think it’s also important to give Kaytron Allen some early touches. He’s looked better than Nick Singleton and just more fluid. The word around the program is that Singleton is just overthinking things and needs to get back to playing fast and downhill. No better time for that than tonight.

So, now onto the good news. And maybe some might disagree with me because of all the speed and weapons that the Oregon offense possesses, but I think the Penn State defense could give the Ducks some issues.

Oregon lost a lot of talent along its offensive line from a season ago and returns just one starter in center Iapani Laloulu. The Ducks did bring in studs in the transfer portal in Isaiah World and Emmanuel Pregnon, but this unit has not faced anything like it will face tonight in an environment that can’t be duplicated.

I think Penn State’s pass rush is the key to it walking out of Beaver Stadium with a victory. Dani Dennis-Sutton has been a game wrecker with nine tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, two forced fumbles, two pass breakups and four quarterback hits. That’s also been in limited reps as the Nittany Lions have rotated a ton of players along its defensive line in the first three games.

Don’t expect to see Sutton or his counterpart Zane Durant off the field much in this one. Penn State has nine sacks on the season and is ranked 16th in the country in that category.

Las Vegas has Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite over Oregon.

Again, I think the pass rush will get to Ducks’ quarterback Dante Moore, who has been really good on the season, throwing for 962 yards and 11 touchdowns with just one interception. He also has a ton of weapons in Dakorien Moore and Malik Benson (over 200 yards receiving) and tight end Kenyon Sadiq (155 yards, 3TDs).

Penn State also needs to watch out for running backs Jayden Limar, Dierre Hill Jr. and Noah Whittington. Oregon is rushing for 255.3 yards per game, which ranks 10th in the country. That could be an x-factor for the Ducks if they can get their run game going.

However, I just like the speed of the pass rush by the Nittany Lions. I think they will be able to get pressure on Moore, and I think he will make a mistake or two that will create a turnover. Look for Zakee Wheatley to make some plays in the secondary tonight.

Lastly, Penn State went out and got three new wide receivers in the transfer portal for this very reason; to show up and make big plays in the big games. Kyron Hudson, Trebor Pena and Devonte Ross need to get open early and often for Allar. I like Hudson to have a big game. Also, don’t be surprised if sophomore tight end Luke Reynolds comes up with some big catches on third down.

My pick is: Penn State 31, Oregon 24.