A recent letter described apparent confusion on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s impact to the federal debt. I hope to clear some of this up. The standard baseline that the CBO uses to score legislation assumes that current law remains unchanged. In other words, it assumes that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s provisions will expire, increasing taxes on most Americans. Using this standard, the OBBBA’s extension of said tax cuts will most assuredly show an increase the federal debt by multiple trillions of dollars. The Senate Budget Committee, on the other hand, uses a baseline that assumes the expiring tax cuts in the TCJA are extended.

That is, the future revenue windfall from upcoming tax hikes currently embedded in the Internal Revenue Code are not considered in this score. Using this baseline, the bill simply does not “look as bad” to the debt compared to the standard baseline.

Neither consider tariff revenue in their revenue offsets.

Despite the two scores, the White House Counsel of Economic Advisors suggest the bill’s economic growth effects, and tariff revenue, would generate enough revenue to offset the bill’s costs.

Legislation’s effects on federal revenue and debt takes years to coalesce. Even after then, the answer will likely depend on whom you ask.

In my humble opinion, the government cannot slash their way out of debt–they have to let revenue from economic growth pull them out of it.

The OBBBA looks to be a spark for large business investment and growth–and a higher tax base.

Ryan Price

New Ringgold