There is one thing you have to say about Carbon County Commissioner Chris Lukasevich - he’s sometimes remarkably unpredictable.

Earlier this year, most expected him to seek a second four-year term, along with the other two incumbents, Republican Chairman Wayne Nothstein and Democrat Rocky Ahner, but Lukasevich announced he had changed his voter registration from Republican to not affiliated.

At that time, it meant he would forgo the Republican primary and most assumed, eyed a run as an independent in the General Election, even though he would neither confirm nor deny his plan.

Many Republican officials who are not particularly fond of Lukasevich or his brash, go-it-alone style predicted that if he had run in the Republican primary he would have lost. Lukasevich scoffs at this notion, claiming that he would have been a shoo-in as one of the two Republican nominees. While he agrees that he and the county Republican hierarchy don’t see eye-to-eye on style and issues, he does have the support of GOP voters.

Be that as it may, Lukasevich struck out to get the necessary number of signers for his petition and was all set to file on the Aug. 1 deadline for independents to get their names on the General Election ballot, but then he said he had an ah-ha moment just hours before the filing deadline. That day, he went home for lunch and realized he needed to take his wife’s concerns into account after their special needs daughter’s caregiver had medical issues, meaning the responsibility would fall on Maggie. It also meant that his decision to campaign would require his wife put her career as an artist on hold. So instead of filing the required nominating petitions, he made the 11th hour decision to pull out of the race.

Political observers contend that Lukasevich would have had an almost insurmountable task running as an independent in Republican-leaning Carbon County, especially with two GOP candidates on the ballot. They also believe that Lukasevich came to the realization that there is no way he was going to win a seat on the board of commissioners, so he bowed out as gracefully as he could.

When I asked Lukasevich about this, he laughed out loud, claiming that he probably would have wound up second in the balloting come November. Typically, there are four nominees for commissioners - two Republicans and two Democrats - who are nominated in the primaries. Then in the General Election, voters can cast ballots for up to two of the candidates, and the top three would be elected. This was set up to ensure minority party representation. Lukasevich, who proclaims himself a competent political researcher, said that after he crunched the potential voting results for November’s contest he believes he would have taken the third spot for certain but would have even more likely finished second. He claims to have widespread Democratic support because of his stances and record on environmental issues and was encouraged by some well-known, non-official county Democrats to run.

One of the things he most regrets because of his decision to drop out is not being a part of next month’s commissioner candidates’ debate where he hoped to give a different perspective from that of the four party-backed candidates.

Candidates who run as independents lack the strong party infrastructure that major parties possess, making it more difficult to reach voters, fundraise and mobilize supporters. In an increasingly Republican county such as Carbon, there are going to be a significant number of voters who will vote for the candidates under their party’s label. Let’s face it, voters gravitate toward recognizable party labels due to established ideologies and platforms.

Additionally, our political system is set up to favor the two-party system which disadvantages independents. Overcoming these hurdles demands significant resources, grassroots efforts and strategic planning, all of which makes independent election victories an uphill battle.

Lukasevich may be considered a lame duck for the rest of his term, which ends at the end of 2023, but he promised to “sprint, not walk,” to the finish line. He said he has at least two key objectives to see through to completion or as close as possible - creation of a shelter for homeless women and working with Jim Thorpe Borough to get funding to rehabilitate half of a double home when the other half is razed because it had fallen into significant disrepair.

Don’t expect Lukasevich to fade away after leaving office. He’s already talking about possibly seeking the commissioners’ office again four years from now and cautioned whoever is in the commissioners’ chairs for the next four years to look over their shoulders, because he will be listening and watching. And, oh yes, shortly after his decision not to run, he changed his party affiliation back to Republican.

I highly recommend that you read the news article written by staff writer Kelly Monitz Socha based on an interview she did with Lukasevich earlier this month and which appears in both the printed and online editions of the Times News of Aug. 10.

By BRUCE FRASSINELLI|tneditor@tnonline.com

The foregoing opinions do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editorial Board or Times News LLC.