When Republicans overwhelmingly nominated State Sen. Doug Mastriano of Franklin County as their gubernatorial standard-bearer in the May 17 primary, they did not realize it then, but this cost the GOP not only the governor’s chair but possibly control of the U.S. Senate for the next two years, as well.

My Republican sources who were analyzing the numbers in the lead-up to Tuesday’s General Election were sounding the alarm that the amount of ticket-splitting they were anticipating also would mean that their Senate candidate, Dr. Mehmet Oz, would inherit not only some of the benefits of the split but also some of the adverse fallout from the Mastriano candidacy that could make the difference in a close race.

This is precisely what happened. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro handily defeated Mastriano, while the Oz race against his Democratic opponent, Sen.-elect John Fetterman, was closer, but Fetterman won handily despite poll predictions of a dead heat.

Fetterman will take the seat now held by Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., who chose not to run for a third six-year term. Toomey was highly critical Wednesday of former President Donald Trump and blames him for supporting Mastriano, who, Toomey said, weighed down the entire Republican ticket. Toomey echoed many Republicans who said Mastriano’s policies are too extreme for Pennsylvanians. “Mastriano’s loss was on an epic scale.” Toomey said, “and it was very hard for down-ballot candidates to overcome that.”

Republicans not only lost the governor and Senate races, but they also lost three competitive U.S. House of Representatives contests they had a shot at - including two in our area - and may have lost control of the state House of Representatives for the first time in more than a decade.

Shapiro defeated Mastriano by about 737,000 votes, while Fetterman’s margin of victory was about 212,000. Shapiro and Fetterman were victorious in three of our five local counties - Lehigh, Northampton and Monroe - while Mastriano and Oz were easy winners in Carbon and Schuylkill.

Shapiro captured majorities in 16 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, while Fetterman prevailed in 13 of the 67. One factor in Fetterman’s success was to limit the difference between him and Oz in some of the deep-red rural counties of the Commonwealth. He did it, analysts said, by emphasizing his being a homegrown Pennsylvanian, unlike Oz who moved here from New Jersey only recently to establish residency to run for the Senate seat. Fetterman, a former mayor of Braddock, a rust-belt borough in western Pennsylvania, also projected the common man image by his wearing of hoodies and having multiple tattoos.

What wasn’t clear until the numbers rolled in was what effect Fetterman’s stroke in May just before the primaries would have on voters’ perceptions of his ability to handle the job.

While he clearly lost votes after his lone debate with Oz because of his halting speech pattern and inability to express himself more eloquently, he also reaped praise for his efforts at plugging ahead while recovering from the devastating effects of the near-fatal stroke. His doctor indicated that Fetterman’s cognitive abilities would not affect his Senate duties and that he was progressing nicely and on schedule. What troubled some voters, however, was Fetterman’s reluctance to release his medical records.

In capturing about 56% of the vote statewide to Mastriano’s 42%, Shapiro won majorities in Lehigh County by 19%, Northampton by 13% and Monroe by 11%, while Mastriano prevailed in Schuylkill by 21% and Carbon by 16%. In nearby Luzerne County, Shapiro was ahead by 1.5% and in Lackawanna by 24%.

In the Senate race, Fetterman’s margins were much smaller. In taking about 50.8% of the vote statewide to Oz’s 46.8%, Fetterman won three local counties - Lehigh by 10%, Monroe by 6% and Northampton by 5% - while Oz was an overwhelming winner in Schuylkill County by 31% and in Carbon by 23%. In Luzerne County, Oz came out on top by 9%, but in Lackawanna, Fetterman won by 15%.

With his victory, Fetterman was able to flip the Senate seat held by Republicans and occupied until the end of the year by Toomey, who lives in Zionsville, Lehigh County.

Going into the midterms, the Senate was dead even at 50-50, but with the Democrats controlling the White House and with Vice President Kamala Harris presiding over the Senate and armed with a tiebreaking vote, Democrats have enjoyed a slight edge since President Joe Biden took office in 2021.

There are several other key Senate races whose results are too close to call, including a Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia, so it is not clear whether Democrats will retain control or whether the Republicans will wind up with 51 seats to wrest the control they enjoyed during the Trump presidency.

Pennsylvania Republicans must now regroup for the 2024 presidential election to determine how Trump will fit into this picture. Since Trump embraced and stumped for both Oz and Mastriano, Republicans are wondering whether he has lost his magic touch as a kingmaker. Trump has sent signals that he would announce his 2024 candidacy shortly, possibly as early as next week.

By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com