Few games can actually define a team’s season, but Penn State’s match-up with Auburn on the road later this afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) could do just that.

The Nittany Lions are 13-11 since the 2020 season and if they want to get back to competing for New Year’s 6 bowl bids then a win at Jordan-Hare Stadium will certainly go a long way in doing so.

Auburn is in no way to be taken lightly - even if it hasn’t looked great so far this season. Jordan-Hare will be rocking and you know the Tigers and their fans still have a sour taste in their mouth after losing to Penn State last season in the “white out” game, which is why Auburn is making its match-up with the Nittany Lions its “orange out” game this season.

Although, the Tigers shouldn’t be overlooked, the fact of the matter is they’re a one-dimensional team on the offensive side of the football. Auburn has struggled in the passing game so far this season, averaging just 190 yards through the air. The Tigers depend heavily on the success of their run game, averaging an impressive 247.5 yards per game on the ground led by talented running back Tank Bigsby (198 rushing yards, 3 TDs).

The number one key for Penn State is to put Auburn in second-and-long and third-and-long situations, and force them to have to throw the football. First down will be vital. Gaining five or six yards per carry on first down is exactly what the Tigers will need to do to be efficient offensively.

The Nittany Lions’ secondary vs. the Auburn quarterbacks is a match-up Penn State should win a majority of the time as the Tigers’ signal callers have thrown a combined four interceptions to just one passing touchdown. Auburn plays both T.J. Finley and Robby Ashford at quarterback and neither is a proven thrower of the football at the collegiate level. If Penn State keeps the Auburn run game in check, it should be a good afternoon for the Nittany Lions.

The Nittany Lions showed some pop last week behind freshman running back Nicholas Singleton, who rushed for 179 yards on 10 carries and scored two rushing touchdowns. Singleton scored on runs of 70 and 44 yards, while also adding a 48-yard rush. Singleton is the first Nittany Lion with multiple touchdown runs of 40 or more yards and the first Nittany Lion with three 40-plus yard runs in a game since Larry Johnson in 2002. It was good to see Penn State attack the edge in the run game last week, which enabled Singleton to get outside, make some people miss and utilize his elite speed.

Auburn’s front is tough and features vaunted defensive end Derick Hall, who is a stud. Hall had eight tackles last week against San Jose State. I would expect to see Penn State attack the edge again this week, most likely running away from Hall. If the Nittany Lions can break off some big runs once again, it’s going to do wonders for their passing attack, which is where I think they have an edge over the Auburn defense.

So, that takes us to the Penn State passing attack, which is averaging a very solid 323 yards per game. Auburn has struggled defending the pass this season, giving up 236 yards per game. It gave up 275 yards passing to San Jose State last week in a narrow 24-16 win over the Spartans. This is where I believe the Nittany Lions can really steal the momentum in the game. Wide receivers Mitchell Tinsley and Parker Washington are mismatches for the Tigers defense with their speed. Add in the return of talented tight end Theo Johnson, who didn’t play the first two weeks, and I think the Penn State passing game could be very effective against Auburn. Clifford has been solid this season (495 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) and his back up - highly-touted freshman Drew Allar (114 yards, 2 TDs) - looks like the real deal.

Based on the first two weeks of the season, there’s no denying that Penn State is coming into the game playing better football than Auburn. The Nittany Lions will have the crowd to contend with, but if they slow down the Auburn run game, execute some explosive plays in their run game, and take advantage of the mismatches in the passing game they should get out of Jordan-Hare 3-0.

Penn State has yet to be challenged in the run game, because both of its opponents were predominantly pass first teams. So, it will be interesting to see if they can get downhill and in the backfield to trip up Bigsby and company. Keep an eye on the linebackers this week as their play will prove pivotal in helping to stop the run.

With all that said, I just think Penn State is the better team. I don’t think Auburn has the explosiveness - and combined with a (-2) turnover differential - I think the Tigers will struggle to score points. I think the Nittany Lions defense will force two-plus turnovers.

My pick is: Penn State 27, Auburn 17.

NS rolls past Blue Raiders