The most recent seven-day moving average of newly reported COVID-19 cases dropped in all five Times News area counties, but health officials aren’t ready to declare the most recent wave of the pandemic a thing of the past.

COVID-19 data comparison over the most recent two reporting weeks, Oct. 1-7 and Oct. 8-14, show COVID-19 positive cases dropped from 317 to 258 in Carbon County, from 416 to 354 in Schuylkill County, from 409 to 366 in Monroe County, from 704 to 498 in Northampton County, and from 724 to 542 in Lehigh County.

“It’s too soon to tell (whether the COVID-19 delta variant has peaked),” said Dr. Alex Benjamin, Chief Infection Control and Prevention Officer at Lehigh Valley Health Network. “It seems like cases in the community are decreasing; at the same time, from a network standpoint, we have not yet seen a similar decrease in hospitalizations.”

Dr. Jeffrey Jahre, St. Luke’s University Health Network infectious disease expert and senior vice president for medical and academic affairs, said the virus has proven unpredictable, meaning it’s impossible to say if the delta variant has peaked.

Moving indoors

“As the weather gets colder and people move indoors, the infection rate might increase, particularly in communities with low vaccinations rates,” Jahre said.

The average daily number of hospitalizations decreased locally only in Northampton County, with the four other counties showing a slight uptick.

In Carbon County, for example, there were 8.4 average daily hospitalizations due to COVID-19 from Oct. 1-7 and 11.1 from Oct. 8-14. That average is the highest it has been since February, but down from mid-January when daily hospitalizations peaked at an average of 18.1.

Carbon County is an outlier when it comes to the incidence rate of COVID-19 per 100,000 residents. The rate in Carbon stands at 402, which is well above the next closest local county, Schuylkill, at 250.4.

“Carbon County did not have the same rise in cases in early July that was seen in Lehigh and Northampton counties, so there may have been a more delayed surge of the delta variant,” Benjamin said. “There also may be more tourists visiting the area as the summer has been ending.”

Jahre cited other factors that could play a role including “vaccination rates and people’s willingness to take other precautions, such as wearing masks indoors for large gatherings.”

Between 10 and 20% of those hospitalized in Lehigh Valley Health Network facilities are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, officials reported. The Pennsylvania Department of Health, in a report issued earlier this month, said the majority of breakthrough cases were not ending up in hospital stays.

“A look at COVID-19 cases over the past 30 days shows that 74 percent of the 135,098 people who tested positive were unvaccinated,” the report, issued on Oct. 8, states.

“What we continue to see is that the vaccines that are widely available to everyone 12 and older are highly effective for preventing hospitalizations and deaths, even as more post-vaccination cases occur in the context of more transmissible variants,” Acting Secretary of Health Alison Beam said.

Weighing the factors

Predicting whether the next few months, and the holiday events and family gatherings that normally come with them, will result in another COVID-19 surge is a tough call, Benjamin said.

“There is certainly the potential for another winter surge, but there are some factors that make it less likely,” he said. “We expect booster doses to be approved for all three of the COVID-19 vaccines, a COVID-19 vaccine may soon be approved for children ages 5-11, and we have not seen so far any new variants coming into the U.S. including the Northeast.”

At the same time, Benjamin added, health officials have noticed an increase in other respiratory viruses including RSV and rhinovirus/enterovirus.

“Influenza may be more of a factor this year than it was last year,” Benjamin said. “So a surge of respiratory illnesses may occur this winter, which may or may not include COVID.”

The flu season, to date, has been extremely light, Jahre said, but things could get worse as the year comes to a close.

“With less people taking precautions for COVID-19, such as masking, there is a distinct likelihood that the flu season will be worse this year than last year,” Jahre said. “We encourage everyone to get the flu vaccine. It does not interfere with COVID-19 vaccination.”

U.S. Center for Disease Control officials said influenza cases and deaths last year were the lowest since reporting started in 1997, a fact they attributed to masking protocols brought on by COVID-19.

Flu deaths totaled around 700 in 2020, compared to 22,000 in 2019.

This year, however, the CDC is cautioning things may be different.

“Reduced population immunity due to lack of flu virus activity since March 2020 could result in an early and possibly severe flu season,” the CDC said in a frequently asked questions portion of its website.

Benjamin also predicted increased cases nationally and less masking overall may lead to more influenza cases.

“I would encourage everyone to consider wearing a mask when flu cases start to increase locally, typically starting in mid-November,” he said. “And get vaccinated for influenza.”