Log In


Reset Password

COVID recession pushed Social Security insolvency up a year

WASHINGTON (AP) - The sharp shock of the coronavirus recession pushed Social Security a year closer to insolvency but left Medicare’s exhaustion date unchanged, the government reported Tuesday in a counterintuitive assessment that deepens the uncertainty around the nation’s bedrock retirement programs.

The new projections in the annual Social Security and Medicare trustees reports indicate that Social Security’s massive trust fund will be unable to pay full benefits in 2034 instead of last year’s estimated exhaustion date of 2035. For the first time in 39 years the cost of delivering benefits will exceed the program’s total income from payroll tax collections and interest during this year. From here on, Social Security will be tapping its savings to pay full benefits.

The depletion date for Medicare’s trust fund for inpatient care remained unchanged from last year, estimated in 2026.

In the 1980s, financial warnings about Social Security prompted then-President Ronald Reagan and lawmakers of both parties in Congress to collaborate on a long-term solvency plan, but such action is unlikely in today’s bitter political climate. Democrats who control the White House and Congress offered assurances they would protect both programs.

“The Biden-Harris administration is committed to safeguarding these programs and ensuring they continue to deliver economic security and health care to older Americans,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.

The latest estimates reflected the push and pull of many factors flowing from the pandemic, and the full impact may take years to sort out.

The deep but relatively short recession slashed revenue from payroll taxes. But the death toll from COVID-19, concentrated among older people, reduced future Social Security benefit payouts. Hospitals were stressed by the influx of COVID patients, but Medicare didn’t have to pay for as many knee surgeries, colonoscopies and other more routine procedures. Birthrates and immigration, which tend to bolster the two programs, both fell.