HARRISBURG - The Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education is bracing for further enrollment declines, Chancellor Daniel Greenstein told lawmakers this week.

Greenstein, in testimony before the House appropriations and education committees, said enrollment at the 14 universities will be “challenged” in the upcoming academic year.

Greenstein attributed the likely enrollment drop to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than the system’s move to consolidate California, Clarion and Edinboro universities as well as Bloomsburg, Lock Haven and Mansfield universities.

The PASSHE Board of Governors approved the plan to consolidate the six schools into two in July. The system’s aim is for consolidations to be completed by the start of school in 2022.

“It doesn’t seem to have a pattern to suggest anything else” than that the pandemic is the cause of the drop, Greenstein said, adding that he’d guess the students most directly impacted would be low-income students and students of color. Greenstein said that university data suggests that the enrollment drop may also be driven by students dropping out and not returning to campus.

A PASSHE spokesman, when contacted about Greenstein’s comments, said that enrollment figures won’t be finalized until after the school year begins.

Last year, there were 93,704 students enrolled at PASSHE’s universities. That was a 2 percent drop from the prior year when the universities enrolled 95,782 students. The system has been enduring a long string of enrollment declines since enrollment peaked in 2010-11 at 119,513, state system data shows.

Under the consolidation plan, each campus is to retain its historic name, mascots and sports teams.

State Rep. Emily Kinkead, D-Allegheny County, asked Greenstein what sort of contingency plans the state system has in the works in the event that the accrediting body, the Middle States Commission on Higher Education, objects to the consolidation or if NCAA determines that the consolidated universities can’t continue to offer separate sports programs.

Most sports teams at the PASSHE universities compete at the Division II level though a handful compete at the Division I level. Previously, PASSHE officials have downplayed the potential of NCAA action in response to the consolidation, noting that Penn State and Pitt’s branch campuses have sports programs outside of the programs offered by the main campuses.

“The NCAA may not allow these universities to maintain their individual identities. And you can’t predict it, but, but I’m wondering if you have a plan for an alternative,” she asked.

“I don’t have plans for a hypothetical,” Greenstein said. However, Greenstein said there’s no reason to believe that the outside groups would take action to undermine the consolidation plan.

“Their job is not to trip up higher education and do things that are bad for students, their job is to protect higher education and its delivery of services,” he said.

The story was distributed through AP