If I had a dollar for every time I have heard someone say that COVID-19 is “kind of just like the flu,” I could buy a filet mignon dinner for my entire family.

Flash, everyone: This virus that we have been experiencing for the last seven months is 80 times deadlier than last year’s flu for us Pennsylvanians.

From March 18, when the first statewide COVID-19 death was reported, in Northampton County, until now, more than 8,200 have died in our state. The flu season, which ran from Sept. 29, 2019, until March 28, 2020, resulted in 102 deaths, the state Health Department said.

During these same time periods, there were 130,000 cases of the flu in Pennsylvania while there have been more than 157,000 cases of COVID-19 detected, with the daily number rising by between 600 and 1,000 or more.

Flu fatalities were most prevalent among those 65 and older, with 70 or 69% of the deaths recorded in this age group. Those 50-64 recorded 21 deaths; the age group of 19-48 had 10, and there was just one flu death among those 18 and younger.

The 2019-20 flu season had the most cases on record in Pennsylvania, according to Brittany Lauffer, a spokesperson for the state Health Department.

“Although there were many cases, they were not as severe as those during the 2017-2018 flu season,” Lauffer said. “There are many factors why we saw more cases last season, including more people getting tested for flulike symptoms, especially as the concern for COVID-19 was growing in February and March. It is also important to note that flu cases are largely underreported each year because not everyone who has the flu gets tested for it.”

Last year’s flu season was expected to run through May 16, but there was a drastic drop of cases starting in March. So much so that the state Health Department decided to end the reporting count at the end of the month rather than go to mid-May as originally intended.

This is not to say that there are not similarities between COVID-19 and the flu. Both cause respiratory problems which create a wide range of illnesses from asymptomatic (no symptoms) or mild ones through severe complications and death.

Both viruses are transmitted by contact, droplets and sometimes on surfaces. As a result, the same public health measures such as hand hygiene and good respiratory etiquette (blocking a sneeze with a shoulder, etc.), are important preventives to infection.

But there also are major differences between the two, including the speed of transmission. Influenza has a shorter incubation period than COVID-19 - three days vs. five to six days - meaning the flu can spread faster.

The number of secondary infections generated from one individual is between 2 and 2.5 for the COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza.

Children transmit the flu virus much more readily than they do COVID-19 and are less affected by COVID-19 than adults. Conversely, adults can spread the virus to children more easily.

While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic; 15% are severe, requiring oxygen; and 5% are critical, requiring ventilation.

Those most at risk for severe influenza infection are children, pregnant women, elderly, those with underlying chronic medical conditions and those whose systems are not functioning properly (immunosuppressed). For COVID-19, current understanding is that older individuals and those with underlying conditions are most susceptible to severe infection.

I certainly do not profess to be a health professional, but several to whom I have spoken about my theory concede that I might be on to something. I maintain that because a large number of people began wearing masks and were locked down at home starting around the beginning of March, flu infections tailed off dramatically. The extra precautionary measures were not only protecting people and those around them from COVID-19 but also from the flu.

That’s why I am speculating that this year’s flu season may be milder for the same reasons. Although the lockdown has been lifted, there are still social distancing mandates, along with the mask-wearing, recommendations for frequent hand-washing and other precautions. I suspect that following these measures will reduce the incidence of not only COVID-19 but also the flu.

By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com