The first playoff game is here for the Big Ten this season as College Football Playoff hopefuls Penn State and Ohio State clash for the Big Ten East Championship. The winner of this one will most likely go on to play in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis on Dec. 7.

Most analysts, writers and college football watchers expected the Buckeyes (10-0) to be in this position, but most saw the Nittany Lions (9-1) with two, or even possibly three, losses heading into Week 13. But Penn State has played well and looks to be a year ahead of schedule after losing numerous starters from last season. Its only loss came to a then-undefeated Minnesota team two weeks ago on the road by five points. The Nittany Lions have good wins against Pitt (7-3), No. 13-ranked Michigan (8-2), No. 17-ranked Iowa (7-3) and Indiana (7-3) and got through a gauntlet of Michigan, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota and Indiana with just one loss.

So, the stage is set for a big time matchup with the Buckeyes (noon ET, FOX), but unfortunately for the Nittany Lions they have some huge question marks entering today’s game. You want to be playing your best football in all facets entering a game of this magnitude, and Penn State has showed some flaws of late — especially defensively.

Something has happened to the Nittany Lions’ pass defense over the past two weeks. I’m no “x’s and o’s” wizard, but from what I’ve seen there has been some major miscommunications between the cornerbacks and safeties. That was notably apparent last week against Indiana where the Hoosiers had receivers running wide open down the middle of the field. The cornerbacks seemed to think they were expecting help from the safeties at times, but the safeties were just not in position. That’s something that will certainly need to change today against an Ohio State passing offense that is averaging 254 yards per game and is led by Justin Fields, who has thrown for a remarkable 27 touchdowns and just one interception.

Over the last two weeks, the Penn State defense has surrendered 710 yards passing and four touchdowns.

“This is obviously another challenge, a team that throws the ball extremely well. A couple things. First of all, you’ve got to give Minnesota and Indiana credit. Really good job at the quarterback position. Really good job from a scheme perspective, from a talent perspective. Obviously, all those things will be heightened this week, there’s no doubt about that,” said Penn State head coach James Franklin. “We haven’t helped ourselves. There’s been some times where we’ve blown coverages. The reality is that happens with everybody.

“We’ve been unfortunate the times we’ve blown coverage, we’ve gotten burned, we’ve gotten caught for it. We have to eliminate those things as coaches, as players. You’ve got to give those guys credit for being able to take advantage of it.”

Injuries could also once again take their toll for Penn State on the offensive side of the ball. Freshman running back Noah Cain, who has been Penn State’s go-to-guy in the red zone and in short yardage situation, has been out for the past two games and he will be a game-time decision, but the real worry is that dynamic receiver KJ Hamler will be out with a concussion. Hamler has not practiced yet this week, which doesn’t bode well for his chances to play even though Franklin has been positive about having him at the Nittany Lions disposal for this afternoon. The Penn State offense simply isn’t the same without Hamler, who has caught 46 balls for 791 yards and eight touchdowns.

“Like I said last week after the game, we’re hopeful. Obviously, we won’t know. There’s medical policies and procedures that we go through. We have to go through a series of steps and things like that,” said Franklin. “We were hopeful after the game. I still remain hopeful. Those decisions I don’t make. I won’t make them now, and I never have since I’ve been at Penn State.”

For Penn State to have a chance in this one it will most certainly need two things to happen against Ohio State. Quarterback Sean Clifford must have a great game with both his arm and his legs, and the Penn State defense must create pressure.

Clifford has had a very solid season in his first year as starter, throwing for 2,450 yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he’s been good on his feet as well, rushing for 375 yards and five scores. Clifford will need to take care of the football, be able to throw the ball downfield and also keep the Buckeyes off balance with his running ability.

There’s no doubt the Ohio State pass rush, which averages 4.2 sacks per game is going to get pressure, so Clifford’s legs can really hurt Ohio State if he’s able to escape its pressure. With Ohio State defensive end Chase Young back this week after his two-game suspension for violating NCAA rules by accepting money from a family friend, I’m sure the Buckeyes’ pass rush will be juiced and ready to roll.

The Penn State pass rush, on the other hand, needs to be better today. Overall, The Nittany Lions have good numbers, averaging 3.3 sacks per game — which ranks 11th in the country — but they have not generated much of a pass rush over the past two weeks against highly-efficient throwing teams in Minnesota and Indiana. Penn State must get a pass rush this week or Fields will have a literal field day.

Las Vegas has the Buckeyes as an 18.5-point favorite.

It would take a monumental effort for Penn State to come away with a win in the “Horse Shoe” today. Ohio State’s defense is ranked in the top three in most every defensive category, including No. 1 in scoring defense and total defense. The offense isn’t far behind with the No. 1 scoring offense in the country at 51.5 points per game.

I do think Penn State is going to come to play. I think the defense will stop the run as it has against almost every team it has faced this season (75.9 rushing yards per game), but can it get enough pressure on Fields to get him and the Buckeyes’ offense off schedule? I also think Clifford, who has shown his toughness many times throughout the year, will play well and he will make some plays to keep Penn State in the ball game.

A positive for the Nittany Lions chances are the last three games between these two have been decided by an average of 1.6 points, with Ohio State winning two of the three. But I still think Ohio State is just too talented. The Nittany Lions will need Fields to turn the ball over, and they will need to play mistake-free football on offense. On the road, I just think it’s too tall of a task.

My pick is Ohio State 38, Penn State 27