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Why experts look at Euro weather model

Mention a European model, and most people will probably think of Heidi Klum or another of the Victoria's Secret Angels.

For weather junkies, however, the phrase conjures up a much different image, one that can be just as exciting.The Euro model is one of several computer simulations that meteorologists use to predict major storms.In recent years, the Euro has gotten a reputation for being able to see upcoming storms before the others.That early alert can be crucial for emergency management officials.Meteorologists in the United States started paying serious attention to the Euro model after superstorm Sandy in 2012. In the days leading up to the storm, several other computer models predicted that the storm would travel out to sea with minor impacts on the East Coast.But the Euro accurately predicted that the storm would double back, walloping the mid-Atlantic and causing damaging floods along the New Jersey shore, according to Poconos weather expert and meteorologist Ben Gelber."This model they put out has proved itself with superstorm Sandy and other events by being ahead of the American models in terms of accuracy," Gelber said.Meteorologists use a range of models to simulate upcoming storms. In order to create those simulations, they have supercomputers that pull in millions of weather readings from around the continent. The computers conduct a massive number of calculations - Gelber says quadrillions per second - to create a simulation of where a storm will hit."You can run the same model multiple times, tweak something, and get different tracks all at the same time," he said.Despite that, after a number of accurate predictions like Sandy mean that meteorologists are particularly interested in what the Euro has to say.Why? Gelber says the computer program produces a higher resolution image - think your HDTV versus an old set with a tube. It also includes some data that is not in other models."They use some additional data that's not assimilated in its American counterpart. The finer resolution allows for a little more confidence in capturing what's happening in the atmosphere," he said.Gelber said he always cautions that the further out a forecast is given, the more likely it is to change.He gave a cautionary tale that happened just one year ago. Last January, meteorologists predicted that New York would be walloped with 1-2 feet of snow from a coastal storm. Every model, including the Euro, predicted a direct hit. Emergency officials virtually shut down the city in anticipation of the storm.When the time came, the storm took a more eastern track, and hit eastern Long Island.Gelber said that at the last minute, the models backed off their original prediction of a big storm in New York, which is why forecasters watch right up until the storm hits."It's almost like an ongoing saga, until the actual events occur," Gelber said. "It's like binge watching your favorite show."