With Major League Baseball's Opening Day just around the corner, Philadelphia Phillies fans can start to get excited for another year of championship-caliber baseball.
However, unlike the last few seasons, this year's Phillies baseball renewal brings some added skepticism.
Phillies fans may not want to hear it, or admit it, but one can't deny that there is a rather big – and aging – pink elephant in the room. Even if no one wants to acknowledge it, the fact remains that the Phillies' core group of star players, the majority of which brought the city its first baseball championship in nearly 30 years back in 2008, are getting older with each passing season and are quickly approaching the down-side of their careers.
Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard – four of the Phillies' top hitters over the last five years – are all in their 30s. Rollins and Utley are both 33, while Howard and Victorino are 32 and 31 respectively.
Now, other contributing players such as Jayson Werth and Pat Burrell have come and gone in that time, but these four have remained constant. Since 2008, these four batsmen have combined to account for 45.9 percent (1,426 of 3,104) of the team's runs and 43.9 percent (1,307 of 2,979) of the team's RBIs. There is no denying that as they go, so does the franchise.
Sadly, there has been an obvious dip in their production over the last two years. Whether it was because of injuries, or just becoming further removed from their prime, the numbers have become downright staggering. In 2008 and 2009, the four combined for roughly 50 percent of the team's runs and 48 percent of the RBIs. Over the last two years, those two percentages drop to 41 and 40 respectively. Kind of scary, right? Sure, Utley and Rollins were injured for some time over the last two seasons, but injuries are a part of the game and have been known to end a career or two. Hopefully that isn't the case here, but there is no doubt that injuries will only speed the aging process.
Utley's situation is becoming more frightening by the day. On Monday he was sent to see a knee specialist after plateau-ing in his rehabilitation and isn't sure when he will return. It is the same knee problem that caused him to miss the first month and a half of last season. A problem like this could easily cut short a player's career and it may actually be in the process of happening.
While Rollins played in only 88 games in 2010, he did bounce back and played in 142 last year despite landing on the DL early in the year. It was only his second ever DL-stint when he landed on the list in 2010, but has now been on it two years in a row.
Howard has never been one to miss games with severe injuries, but will now have to do so for the first time in his career. As fate would have it, Howard ruptured his Achilles tendon on the Phillies' last at-bat of the season last year. Achilles injuries are never beneficial to a power-hitting 250-pounder. His return has since been delayed due to an infection and there is currently no timetable for his return. The most recent reports are saying late May to early June.
Victorino, the youngest of the bunch, has seemed to stay away from the injury bug and should still have five good years ahead of him (knock on wood). As for the other three, only time will tell.
As for the pitching staff, the Phillies' No. 1 and No. 1-A aces in Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are 34 and 33 respectively. They are still two of the top-ten pitchers in the game today, but they aren't getting any younger. Halladay is reportedly already showing signs of diminished velocity this spring. Now velocity isn't everything – just ask Greg Maddux – but it sure doesn't hurt.
Ruben Amaro Jr. and the Phillies' brass took a page out of the Boston Celtics' book and somewhat mortgaged the future for the present when they acquired these two hurlers via trade. Now, I am pretty sure 95 percent of Phillies fans were more than happy to deal all those prospects for Halladay and Lee with the hopes of winning now. However, all Philadelphia has to show for these two studs is three post-season series wins and zero World Series titles. Lee helped the Phils win two playoff series in 2009 before being traded, while Halladay helped the team to the NLCS in 2010. 2008's World Series title came thanks to the arm of Cole Hamels.
Sure, one World Series is nice, but that was won without either of these two pitchers. Having had one of the largest pay rolls in baseball over the last few years, one World Series doesn't justify everything. Having recently mortgaged the future for the present, one ring is out of the question. I feel this team must win at least one more title in order for this group to be considered a success. One title with this roster is simply not enough.
This recent group will probably go down as the best Phillies team ever assembled, and rightfully so considering they have made the playoffs and increased their win total each of the last five years, including a franchise-best 102 games last year. Unfortunately, history doesn't care about regular season wins. World Series titles are what make a team legendary. So far the franchise's greatest team has only one, and that came with arguably the least-talented bunch of the last four years.
This Phillies group still has time to write its legacy. I would like to think this team still has three or four great years left in them. Baseball is a sport where most men can play into their mid-to-late 30s. It's just that right now, the Phils are nearing that fine line between championship-quality and over-the-hill and are doing so rather quickly. If they are fortunate enough to win one or two more titles within the next few years, all the deals and signings will be considered a success and this team will go down in Philadelphia lure. However, if they continue to come up empty handed, they may go down in lure for all the wrong reasons. For everyone's sake, let's hope that doesn't happen.
Shawn McFarland will blog about the Phillies every other Saturday until the end of the season. Size constraints may not allow for the entire blog to be published, so be sure to check out Shawn's personal blog at sportssanctuary.blogspot.com for the full story.